My guess is the market [ all us players ] are a tad nervous and so we should be .
Should I of put some numbers up to justify the heading I used ? Maybe or maybe not as that is my right .
I've found over the years by giving a price prediction that we get scorned and screamed at . I've also seen many traders come and go from this forum and some of the best swing traders like Minoutour [spelling] were given such a hard time they left . Shame on u ignorant folk in cyber land .
I'm not [NOT] going to call a figure on BHP as I presently don't have one . But when or if I can get the brain focussed and understand the price action a little better I MAY TRY . That's right nothing any of us put on this forum , in way of prediction , is a dead set certaintity . IT IS ONLY A PREDICTION .
Below are a few posts which have been close to the mark or close to the cent infact . I've also made plenty of posts that have been ABSOLUTELY WRONG . Infact if I'd traded every post that I called wrong I'd be broke many times over . As a proffessional punter that's been in the game for several years and still alive I guess I can be proud . But it's easy to make grandiose claims but it's stinken hard to make a buck in this game . After rereading Gann again and again what rings out so many times is money mangagement rules . Did u know Gann went broke ? so did Livermore and so many of the other greats . Remmy should be commended for his closing line [ tight stops ] Money management rules are the most important thing with trading , we all make mistakes .
Ok to the call on BHP . Firstly guys if u wanna make a long term projection don't look at a short term chart . A habit we all fall into . Whens the next yearly low coming ? ahahah ?
If someone wants to show a long term chart of bhp say from 1988 to current but it has to be a yearly chart we notice that BHP finished on the yearly high in 2003 then went onto make a small gain in 2004 , if we place a ruler along the top of the last 5 years we see a top of around 13.00 but if we look at the yearly price movements we notice that it could fall back a long way to last years low and still be in an upward pattern . Now I'm guessing my chart is accurate , it maynot be and I generally use 2 different charts to check . So what denotes a crash ? 10 % 20% 50 % . u decide .
Now we do something different and again please checkout the method I used to call the tops and bottoms on wpl , bpc , gtp , ncp , rio . GTP which I called on the day got to within 1 cent of the figure [please note the era I placed in brackets] Rio actually broke above by 10 c . NCP a direct hit , almost . BPC with everyone screaming at me is on track and may or maynot hit the figure . But for those who dont understand ranges please checkout the ranges for yourself or the appropriate charts with the shares and calls below .
Now lets look at a monthly chart [bhp]from the low of December 1998 to present . I get ranges of ; 4.60- 9.60 = 5.00 6.80-10.60 = 3.80 7.30- 11.60 = 4.30 8.20 - 12.60= 4.40 nothing perfect there and it works better when it is perfect , hence the reason on the rio thread I had to give a wide 4th range . [see below ]
If any of u keep an eye on spi ranges it's amazing how regular we see 320-350 ranges up and retracements of 160 points .
Again if we check the aud/ yankiee $ we see we are now in the 3 rd range up which is why I called it to 80 yonks ago . Interesting to see all the brokers now predicting 80 for this range as well . lol the slow buggers .
Now using ranges is only one method of calling the price action . What I've found to be important is working out what the game is . ie; Is the first range up from a significant low going to repeat itself ? this is how we guage the market strength . If the 2nd range is less than the 1st the trend is weak ? . Now if we write the numbers down on a piece of paper one under the other sometimes we see a pattern developing . Look at the gtp thread below , VERY INTERESTING ME THINKS as it was adding to each range . RIO one is now in play . Ncp I also predicted to retrace to ? cant find me paper but is written on hc several times .
Using ranges to predict prices is the one of the oldest methods in the book . It can be done easily and quickly and can be very accurate but one must understand the name of the game . Wasn't it interesting that shell came out last night with lowering of reserves ? Isn't it amazing how this kind of stuff happens arounds tops and bottoms . Its all a big game folks and the name of the game is to be in the right way . The companies need a liquid market to fleece us out of our money so we need to be one up on them .
Please note it was not my intention to cause grief to any bhp shareholder and I'm sorry if I've upset any but last nights action on the dow and s&p was predicted here on h/c .
Please never act on what I say or write as I maybe wrong or my weird sense of humour [or medication] maybe coming out .
There are some fantastic posters on H/C who have made and lost millions , YES MILLIONS , do your own research is the name of the game and if all else fails get a real job . lol lol hehehehe
The below is not to gloat but to show method . I should add one more and if u watch Yogi , frankiedee , Bondy and others they use time , Arthur also put up a time jigger . Gann was the master of squaring price and time . All I can say is God made the heavens and earth in 6 days and on the 7th He declared it a time of rest . So 7 is the main number and completes the first cycle . 28 days in a month x13 gives us a year . lol ranges below .
re: anyone home ? Posted 09/01/04 21:36 - 19 reads Posted by gse1963 Post #1423 - in reply to msg. #1422 - splitview
Welcome back J/C and Frankiedee .
Being that shares are often mentioned here ,as they obviously determine the value of the spi or vice versa , I figured I'd throw one in from left field .
Bhp from it's low of 1998 early 99 has just undergone its 4th leg up . If we believe elliot and Gann who say things run in 3 waves [ranges ] and sometimes 4 then we have a major top happening in bhp at the moment . It may challenge the high and even go slightly higher but on my figs this is the start of a major correction .
We are currently witnessing a rotation out of the major miners and we see the stuff like banks ,llc and others now having a run . Whether their run is temporary or not I get the feeling we are in for a preety exciting year .
Stats tell us that election years are normally good years or I think the stat is 85 % of the time atleast . Can this be one of those 15% shocking years ?
I'm not going to commit myself to a target yet but will watch all the dates on the above posts very carefully.
Cheers ge
Subject
Posted 06/01/04 11:07 - 138 reads Posted by gse1963 Post #209931 - start of thread - splitview
Rio just made it to my top number below , lets see if we get some profit taking . cheers ge
Subject re: short rio!!! action and reaction Posted 30/12/03 11:19 - 75 reads Posted by gse1963 Post #206725 - in reply to msg. #206710 - splitview
Ok lets see if this works . Do your own guess work as the below is only a quicky . ranges to the upside since Jun/July low.
28.00 - 32.90 = 4.90 31.40 -35.50 = 4.10 32.20-36,80 = 4.60 33.50 - ? = probable range of 4.10 - 4.90 so anywhere between 37.60 - 38.40 will give us a short term top .
cheers ge Subject re: rio puts ... rio2d update Posted 09/01/04 09:07 - 41 reads Posted by gse1963 Post #212370 - in reply to msg. #212346 - splitview
Correction to my above figs . S&p on 200 day moving average = scary stuff but a break to 1160 which is also 2002 top and a tripple top . Dow can be considered a double top NOW = see 2002 chart .
We must move back to the 50 day moving average , or must we ?
ge
Subject wpl for the longtermers . Posted 20/11/03 13:31 - 40 reads Posted by gse1963 Post #39880 - start of thread - splitview
Being that oil is the story of the month I've been running threw the figs in WPL .
Listed at 3.00 traded as low as 2.50 . Climbed to 13.00 then had a fib retracement to 6.50 . Did exactly the same range on the 2nd leg of 10.00 then another fib retracement almost exactly . We are now on the 3rd leg and all things being = which is never the case we can look for a long term price of $20.00 . This may happen sooner of later depending on whether a bid appears . The first leg up took 6 years the 2nd 3 years and the 3rd =?
We are now in a consolidation phase and may even experience a down month or 2 but unless we break 10.00 or I'll even goe as far to say unless we break 11.50 in this current time frame the trend remains up with a price target of 20.00 .
Do your own research but oils got me excited . ge Subject re: u buyers - temata and alpha centurian ? Posted 31/10/03 11:40 - 188 reads Posted by gse1963 Post #168929 - in reply to msg. #168855 - splitview
Maybe you've forgotten about this old thread temata . read below . [thread was on BPC] Maybe if u ask Alpha real nice He'll work some fib magic on it for u and give some price targets . ge
Subject re: boring Posted 30/09/03 15:30 - 125 reads Posted by gse1963 Post #149514 - in reply to msg. #149495 - splitview
Temata looks like a decline to about 0.50c in 6 months time . cheers ge
Subject re: boring Posted 30/09/03 16:52 - 119 reads Posted by gse1963 Post #149594 - in reply to msg. #149542 - splitview
HI Darke , only had a quick look originally .
An interesting chart if you look at a 5 year monthly . It shows major retracements of between 4 -9 months with the average being 7 . Price retracements have also been significant .
If u measure the swing tops to lows add in some fib levels or elliot stuff it'll give a clue to future prices .
If that all sounds to hard just do a 5 year monthly channel with 0.65 and 0.92 top of channel and 0.06 and 0.42 being low of channel add in some 45degree slopping retracements and you'll see what i mean . Obviously my original post was a tad rough but not without logic . U decide and happy betting .
night all . ge Subject re: gtp versus fea and tim - alpha Posted 03/09/03 14:10 - 288 reads Posted by gse1963 Post #135334 - in reply to msg. #135306 - splitview
Lets see if these figures mean anything ;
Ranges; 0.86 - 1.16 = 20 [ THIS WAS wrong = 30 ] 0.98 - 1.23 = 25 112 - 1.43 = 31 136 - 172 = 36 1.51 - ? = ? [obviously the number is 192 = 41 ]
The game remains the same until someone don't want to play anymore . lol
Figures are only approximate . cheers ge Subject re: gtp versus fea and tim - daily top Posted 04/09/03 12:47 - 179 reads Posted by gse1963 Post #135938 - in reply to msg. #135769 - splitview
Still a long way to go intodays trading but price action on gtp will more than likely show that 1.91 was the top of this range . Spewing as it didn't make my 1.92 number but hey whats a cent between friends . lol
I love the pull backs on gtp as they give another entry level but be warned it's not so easy to get set in a fast trending market .
Wouldn't it be lovely if all u folk drove it back to 1.51 so I could double up again ? NAH didn't think so . cheers ge Subject re: nws chart..thread Posted 08/12/03 14:35 - 136 reads Posted by gse1963 Post #194061 - in reply to msg. #193965 - splitview
For what it's worth Arthur I get the figure of 11.20 give or take 10 c .
Thanks for the tatts ticket . cheers ge Subject re: bouncing back as expected ... oops Posted 09/12/03 17:43 - 41 reads Posted by gse1963 Post #195315 - in reply to msg. #195285 - splitview
Blind me teddy , when I did my original ncp guesstimate on Arthurs thread it was only a quicky . Now it looks tooooo perfect .
Ranges and time ; High at 13.80 went down 20 days to 11.75. Low at 11.75 to high of 13.20 =28 days .
13.20 down to 11.10 in 20 days and 2.10 so similar number . In a perfect world we want 28 days up and a price of 12.55 ish.
Nahhhh to perfect for me . lol
Lets see what tonight brings . Good luck to U and Mr's Remmy . ge ps; I get the option high of 1.31 on 11/11
BHP Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
(20min delay)