We don’t know where the SP is headed, down for the present, particularly if IO price declines further and copper goes nowhere. In the absence of a black swan event ie major economic collapse somewhere (Trump blows things up?) you can, in my view, see limited downside in BHP from here. Maybe mid $30’s but most likely no further than $36 (looking at historical movements in SP when IO prices collapse for awhile)
Bottom line is you don’t know where the bottom precisely is but be guaranteed BHP will recover and advance back to mid $40’s and higher when other arms of their business hit their straps ie potash and rising copper demand post 2026/27. And China will need big stimulus announcements by March at the latest I think.
Buying at these levels ie sub $39 is a good bet, not just for dividend ie 6% annual yield but long term upside to fair value. There will be a rotation back into resources sometime in 2025
Do you own research and thinking on this, but I will be topping up this week for the long play
BHP Price at posting:
$38.98 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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