I suspect part of this strategy is to diversify away from Australia with a copper growth story elsewhere. The IR laws could stop the expansion of the South Australian copper hub which includes Oak Dam. Use the Anglo asset expansions in South America as a bargaining chip to say change those IR laws or we invest $10s of billions in South America, not Australia. A trump presidency will also likely see RIO/BHP JV at resolution in Arizona get approved. That deposit is far superior to anything, I believe it’s the highest grade large scale deposit in the world that hasn’t been developed.
If copper price permanently rerates above $5 a pound then the Anglo deal makes sense. A lot of analysts have long term assumptions at low to mid $4s, hence questioning BHPs move. Hence BHP must be modelling in much higher prices. Synergies… well we know coking coal assets would. South American copper should have some. Brazilian iron ore - high grade makes sense too. Everything else is junk in Anglo.
BHP Price at posting:
$44.64 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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