bhp value closer to 10 than 20, page-10

Those with a Tier 1 asset of good geology and grade will always survive, some more painful than others.

I remember contemplating and anticipating the pain of US frackers will eventually force the industry to fold but the resilience is usually stronger than speculation. Likewise the speculation as IOP drop and the supply continue to ramp up was 'suppose' to destroy domestic Chinese IO industry. All speculative logic has not materialised so there goes forecasting the future.

Either case of doom or boom can always be imagined by the investor as they plot their strategy but I will go by history and guess that the odds of BHP/RIO surviving the down turn of the cycle is most probable. The bottom price of valuation is a MUCH more difficult guessing game . The market hates uncertainties and lawsuit is the immediate distraction for management.

If I buy now then I have to carefully factor if a repeat of this Black Swan event can occur after all their multi mines are littered with tailing dam. RRL comes to mind!