BHP:, page-4

In reality any BHP sp referenced prior to 2015 has to include South32 as well, so in todays terms BHP value is already closer to the $40 (Actual $36.77).

BHP also bought the shale assets at the peak of the market, and are selling well below that. On that basis I doubt BHP will get to $40 as if oil goes higher BHP will not be a beneficiary.

BHP sp will be more about capital mgt, there have been numerous occasions where they stated there will be capital returns, share buybacks, bonus shares etc. These have never come to fruition either due to poor timing of acquisitions or heavy capital write-downs.

I'm sure they will once again moot a capital return after the shale assets have been sold off, but I wait with bated breath whether they will actually return capital to shareholders. Their record in this area is below par, but you never know with Elliott breathing down their neck they may have no choice.