bhpp, page-4

i commented recently that i thought a no go on cinco would result in a price drop, but i don't think enough speculators have come in yet to force a mass exit and big drop. long termers won't sell and the more certain and inherently valuable projects like galoc dev+exp are all on track.

duhat is not to be underrestimated imo. that could be a nice little earner and cheap to materialise... question would be how hectic is the terrain (the seismic photos look like it was full on jungle). if there are a few roads, they could just have stocktanks and an offtake facility at the nearest wharf.

fair value seems to be 8-9 cents and can only go up as galoc is developed (assuming expected outcomes). so downside limited.

we're in mid feb. the work program deadline is end of august. they would want to be a long way along the planning of the well by now because just getting things like casing and subsea equipment will take this long. an ultradeep well like this with a big company like bhpp would typically take a year to plan i reckon.

but will the government have the guts to take back the licence? perhaps the equity would go back to OEL? perhaps a new partner for SC55 down the track?