Matt - won't be a given unless all elements are tied up. The "reasonable price", the financing from CDB and the permits. Expect that there will be a gap between the SP open and renegotiated price. And of course shareholder vote. Instos will prevail here.
The only left field I can see is the emergence of another player with a counter offer. Hard to see but it is possible. Some big players have had their ruler across SDL for some time. If the Africans are happy to play on a level playing field, then they may win too. However, would they want to support another country over the Chinese who have $20 billion pledged.
SDL Price at posting:
33.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held