Another way to look at it would be to consider the simple fact that PLL invested as per their wording ( below ) - specifically to obtain production from the Sayona's Quebec operations . So 50% or 60% - whichever is greater. So that could very well support the view that this recent move in SYA's SP is 100% associated with the potential NAL deal . And I will show you why I feel this way.
But firstly , I would like to state the following about my position.
So many good points being made here. And in answer to someone's question as to where I was and why I had been ' Silent ' in regards all this ' kerfuffle ' . Truth is I have been watching and reading every single post all along. It's just I didn't think it was worthy of further comment when obviously the SP is under further pressure. And I was raised that if you didn't have anything good to say then no need to really say it. And why should I really. It is not my responsibility to hold peoples hands through these issues. It is their own responsibilities to do their own research.
Besides , would it have made it any better if I had joined in on the down pampers - simply because I chose to sell ALL my holdings at 4.5 - 4.6 cents back a couple of days ago.
And so it should be no surprise , as I had already indicated that I had been a seller of the OC's at 35 - 3.6 cents only several days ago. It only follows then that it should be no shock I would continue to assess my situation as it related to the heads. And while I can understand the thinking that the Director's notice of selling after market close on a Friday is not the best look , it certainly supports the theory that there is a lot more going on with regards to this Company's SP than obviously just the T.A as many will claim. Suffice to say , I will leave the discussion on O'Neils sell down of 40 million shares to my next post.
However , I do this out of respect to those who understand this situation., and because I believe I did tell all of you that at some stage after that after finessing my position , I would definitely sell after the prolonged sideways action of the SP at below 1.0 cents . So 400+ % together with over 1,800% or more gains on my options was always going to be considered as my ' trigger ' point for a well earned exit on this investment.
Having said that , I left a smallish parcel of only 250,000 of heads which I will look to build a further position on as we move forward. And in actual fact as I had prepared most of this post earlier , I just bought a significant parcel on the DIP this morning .....so I am back up with several million in hand. So clearly , I still like the potential story which continues to unfold with Sayona Mining , and so out of respect to the other like minded SYA investors , I would prefer not to just blow smoke up your backsides, and only post FACTS - and because my original decision was also a difficult one as the values at the time had already exceeded my interim valuations which as you know were around the $150 million. And it went above that.
So I had virtually been working night and day pouring over file notes, peer comparisons, and various announcements and economic analysis. But at the end of the day , and after all that , the decision I made was the decision I had to make. And for what it is worth , I still reckon it is a BUY. It's just that it may take a bit longer than what people seem to be expecting.
And no doubt in my mind that the BID's are BOTH complex and evolving ....and so will require significant evaluation and weighing up by the Quebec Government Authorities before a decision can be finalized here.
But as I had previously stated by saying keep a close eye on the Quebec Lithium ' minnow ' Jourdan Resources ..... And sure enough they came out only yesterday talking up the significance of the Tesla agreement with PLL , and PLL's investment in Sayona as being ultra significant to the " prolific Val d'Or mining district and region is to producing battery grade lithium for implementation in batteries for electric vehicles and siml applications "
So we can see that Authier , Tansim , and the surrounding areas are massively significant to the success of BOTH NAL , as well as the ' New ' Nemaska , as well as the Quebec Governments desires in making the Val d'Or region one of its key Lithium and EV producing HUBs. .
There is also the fact the CATL already has a relationship with Tesla , and CATL is also one of the largest former shareholders and investors in NAL. Now we know that upon immediate failure of NAL , CATL went directly to PLS for it's spod and not AJM. So is there a connection to CATL which is strong , or is it more of a ' Kirribilli ' deal between the Quebec hard rock lithium Industry , it's Chinese backers , and Australian hard rock lithium .....and it's Chinese backers....
Because this battle for hard rock supremacy has been going on with Canada vs Australia now for some time...with very early comments being made by former CEO of Nemaska Guy Bourassa back in 2018.
But the Global Lithium landscape with the emergence and awakening of the HUGE North American EV markets are changing this landscape with the smart operators posturing and getting set into it early. And CATL Canada still has a very strong and ' early ' roots in Canada so irrespective of COVID-19 changes to supply chains etc..... Most of the Carbonate and Hydroxides produced in North America will most likely remain in the Americas.
So rather than get into what if's and why fors about Lithium market comparisons past or present , changing US political administrations , the Paris agreement on climate change and environmental protocols , or anything else for that matter. Lets just look at the strength of SYA's BID from ' Experience ' aspects of what they offer together with the ' Economics ' of the potential deal as well as what it could really mean for the proper ' Expansion ' of the HUB style concept rather than a more stand alone operation with ZERO ' Exponential ' type GROWTH.
To do this , I would bring you attention to BOTH the SYA ASX's announcements below with the FIRST highlighting the bolstering of the BID
7 November 2019
Highlights
• Primero Group Americas, a leading engineering firm specialising in lithium operations, joins world‐class team supporting Sayona in the bidding process for the North American Lithium (NAL) mine inQuébec, Canada
• Former NAL superintendent and plant manager, Ghislain Dubé, also joins bidding team to add hisoperational experience and in‐depth knowledge of mine’s operations
With additional comments from that announcement :-
Significantly too, former NAL superintendent and plant manager, Ghislain Dubé, is joining Sayona’s bidsupport team, providing his personal, in‐depth knowledge concerning the NAL operation.
So I would then ask the question regarding ' Experience ' , and show me where if at all the Evolution Bid can harness this sort of DIRECT working knowledge and experience of the NAL operation. That leads us to the next Article as follows :-
2 April 2020
NEW STUDIES SHOW BENEFITS OF NAL‐AUTHIER COMBINATION
Highlights
• New internal studies show benefits of combining ore bodies, with preliminary metallurgicaltestwork by SGS showing the ability to produce 6% Li2O concentrate at 80‐85% recovery rate froma blended feed comprising Authier and NAL ore; PwC economic modelling demonstratessubstantial boost to net present value (NPV) from Authier‐NAL combination
Since officially lodging its bid for NAL with the court‐appointed monitor (administrator) on 21 February2020, Sayona has undertaken substantial preparatory work to ensure a rapid resumption of operations atNAL. The Company plans to integrate NAL with its emerging Authier project, located 60 km away, todeliver a significant improvement in plant performance and economics.
Assay results undertaken by leading global certification firm SGS have demonstrated the ability to producea 6% Li2O concentrate at an 80‐85% recovery rate by blending Authier and NAL ore.A larger combinedNAL / Authier reserve will also lengthen the mine life while increasing Sayona’s lithium concentrateproduction from 2,600 tonnes per day (tpd) to 4,200 tpd, ensuring valuable long‐term jobs for the benefitof the Québec community, including First Nations peoples.
Similarly, economic modelling undertaken by global accounting group, PwC has shown the superioreconomics resulting from the combination of NAL and Authier, with a substantial increase to NPV.
Sayona also aims to re‐engage with local businesses that have previously worked with NAL as part of theCompany’s focus on sustaining beneficial long‐term relationships. Importantly, restarting operations atNAL will not only restore lost jobs and investment, but also enhance Québec’s position as a reliable andsecure supplier to sensitive customers in the automotive, defence and technology industries in NorthAmerica and Europe.
So basing the Operations on a 6 day conservative operating week - allowing then for 52 days of maintenance shutdown , public holidays , and Annual Leave requirements. This would then represent 312 days of operations at the combined 4,200 t / d for the remaining 313 days or 1,314,600 t / y .
So calculating this Annual tonnage at somewhere between the old 78% recoveries as per the Revised DFS mach deux ( below ) , and the Proposed combined upper limit grade of 85% under a combined NAL / Authier ( per above announcement ) . At 6% LiO , this would then be between 61,523 t /y and 67,044 t / y spodumene concentrate.
Authier - Revised DFS mach deux
• Annual average spodumene production – dry (6% Li2O) of 114,116t vs 87,400t; 78% recovery rate
• Life of mine 13.8 years (based on a higher daily production rate of 2,600 tonnes per day comparedto the previous DFS rate of 1,850t)
• Total EBITDA of C$461m and total net revenue of C$1,412m
• Initial capital costs C$120m; life of mine capital costs C$211m
• Project payback period of 2.7 years (after start of production)
The project’s low capital and operating costs reflect its close proximity to established infrastructureincluding rail and road and access to a skilled local workforce, in addition to no requirement for on‐siteinfrastructure such as accommodation camps and power plants. It also benefits from access toeconomical, environmentally friendly hydroelectric power and offers a simple deposit geology, miningand production processes.
And so those figures my friends , which I have presented above are in fact MORE than Authier's revised DFS 2,600 tonnes per day on its own ... ...and more like the figures which would be achievable through the combined estimated tonnages of 4.200 tonnes per day of BOTH the NAL and Authier operations.
So even if we said the Authier Operations ran 2,600 tonnes per day for the FULL 365 days of the year at the DFS 80% ( which is higher than the stated 78% in the DFS ) - at 6.0% , this would only represent SC6 production of 45,552 tonnes per year - and less than that of which has been requested at 50% of 60,0000 tonnes ( which ever is the greater ) and required by PLL.
Therefore , this offtake or moreover ' Supply Agreement when we examine the precise wording ( immediately below ) - Can ONLY mean that this ' Binding ' Supply Agreement with Piedmont .....MUST be on the assumptions of the likelihood of Sayona winning its BID for NAL.
And these DFS Authier figures have to be compared to the PLL / SYA wording of the ( " Supply Agreement " )which states :-
pursuant to which Sayona Quebec will supply Piedmont with the greater of 60,000 t /y or 50% of Sayona Quebec's SC6 production at market prices on a life -of- mine basis
And so this countering BID from a Company who has only been established for ONE single year ( Evolution Metals ) , is simply noise.
And it wouldn't matter if they bring in a ' Designated Hitter ' off the bench at this stage or even a Bigger ' Offtake ' partner ( which I don't think they would have ) - But if they did , it wouldn't matter because as we have seen with CATL ....who are also BIG in there own right , did not make a single bit of difference in staving off the collapse of NAL in this last instance. And so Quebec will definitely NOT want a repeat of these sorts of failures by the vested interest parties and stakeholders. They will want committed parties with very deep pockets who are prepared to stay the long term. And as far as I can see , the TESLA - PIEDMONT - SAYONA ticket meets more than all the criteria.
And so isn't it also rather interesting that earlier in the year when PLS obtained the 75,000 tonne per year offtake agreement with the Chinese chemical and battery supplier Yibin Tiany , and who CATL own 15% , and which PLS agreed to initially ship 60,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate commencing in 2020.
So the 60,000 tonnes which is tied back to CATL seems to be the magic number which also represents what Sayona would have approximately left over from a combined NAL / SYA operation. Because as it turns out Yibin Tianyi was also aiming at scaling up it's production to 100,000 tonnes per year by 2022....or another 40,000 tonnes , and which is most likely closer to 60,000 tonnes by now.
(20min delay)