What a great opportunity to top up.
If you do the maths:
1. $4.1m EBITDA Q1,
2. $8.1m EBITDA in Q2,
3. Q3 should be at least $9m, as the iron ore price averaged ~US$15/t more over Q2
4. Q4 could be similar to Q1.
On that basis, minimum is the top of the EBITDA range, putting BCI on ~1.2x EV/EBITDA.
FMG are likely to restart Nullagine (changed on mind on this). It has 8mt ready to go and another 10mt if they do prestrip. Nice little supplement to FMG tonnes given they have rail and port capacity.
Bucklands approvals are all in. Don't be surprised if FID occurs in 2017 and the project gets built. Happy to ride out some volatility. In the past when iron ore has fallen so rapidly, it generally bounces back some in quick time.
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