the analyser's analysis Nice post Analyser, and it kind of fits...

the analyser's analysis Nice post Analyser, and it kind of fits in with your name.

I guess we are in or about the "holy Moses! - it is only 1.1 x !!!! - aaarrrrgggghhhhh!!" stage of your scenario.

I don't wish to put words into your mouth but, If I have read you right and extrapolating (very wildly), your expectation is a short period of stagnation, followed by a retrace, followed by a flattish sp for a while followed by another steady climb, albeit at a slower rate than the previous phenomenal run, to new and undreamed of heights.

So, here I go with numbers:

Currently 14 - 15 cents

Retrace within 2 - 3 weeks to 11-12 cents

Profit takers and disappointed traders hold sp at that level until all shaken out or give up hope of meteoric rise - say 5 to 6 weeks.

Beginning of April start of a steady run from 12 cents to (say) 25 cents by end of year (100% gain) as company starts trading on a higher PE due to continued profit and strong management etc.

Trend continues through the following year.

At some future high sp and & PE, say 75 cents, 2 years down the line, the stock is no longer speculative, earnings continue to grow, dividends are paid. SP goes flat/retraces for long period as PE earnings drops until it gets to a natural level for a value investment (say 20+ times) .

This pattern is pretty much what happened with RDF, leaving me sitting with a shed load averaged at around the current sp (315 cents ish) - i.e. all my profit wiped out.

From all that, I can see a strategy of selling what you can at the 14 - 15 cent level now, buying back at around 12, giving you about 25% more shares for your money.

As regular readers will know, I rate myself as "crap" at picking tops & bottoms, so this would be a high risk strategy for me. Having said that, I have handsome profit already so I wouldn't be too upset if I didn't get it quite right.

Alternatively, one could just "bottom Drawer" this baby for a year or so and sell out then.

I admit to being one of the euphoric followers (and who wouldn't be with this beauty?), riding the wave and extrapolating the graph without too much reality tarnishing the tint on my rose coloured spectacles.

I would be interested to read any thought on the scenario given or indeed, other scenarios.

BTW: As someone non-resident for tax purposes, the CGT is not an issue with me - I don't pay it.

Kind regards and happy holding.

Keith.