I've just been reviewing the 13 Nov 2006 Scoping Study announcement.
At that time OMC was looking at 1.5m lbs Uranium p.a. at an initial operating cost of $US23/lb. Total capex $US59.5M +/-30%. A cash margin of $US37/lb = $50M pa was indicated at POU $US60/lb.
OK, now use POU $100/lb conservatively and say cost $US27/lb. Cash margin is now $US70/lb, ie double, with annual cash margin now $US105M = $A130M.
Currently 154M shares on issue, say this grows to 200M with SPP's and placements to largely finance the modest plant cost.
Then you have EPS of say $A130M minus say $15M admin etc = $A115m less 30% tax = $A80 NPAT/200M = EPS $A0.40.
On say PE10 for short mine life (<10 years until more resources/reserves are proven up) = sp $A4.00.
Discount by half to reflect today's stage of growth and shares on issue = say sp $A2.00.
Check: 13.7M lbs equates to $US18/lb IGV which is not too far out of the ballpark I would have thought. That is allowing nil for resource upgrades that will occur.
This is rough back of envelope stuff - is this reasonable.
The fact is OMC sp has been stalled since Denison turned up and has a lot of catching up to do. There is also a LOT of news pending on all sorts of things that will have a material effect of the company's value.
OMC
omegacorp limited
