Share
3,795 Posts.
lightbulb Created with Sketch. 1980
clock Created with Sketch.
23/11/17
12:38
Share
Originally posted by jonathanrwcb
↑
In the absence of news, I think it's important for the SP to find a level at which to consolidate in order to provide support and a base for the next leg up. Unknowingly claiming that when every time the SP drops its 'manipulation' or 'tree shaking' or 'bots at large' isn't helping anyone. These knee-jerk reactions may encourage prospective first-time buyers who have been watching this rocket on the sidelines to jump in on the first decline thinking it'll bounce back up tomorrow.. and when/if the stock continues to decline these holders will likely sell adding more fuel to the sell-side.
The SP consolidated from 1.80-1.30 a few months ago representing - 30%+ decline and while I would be very surprised to see a similar decline from 4.98 given the incredible fundamentals and growth - nobody should be shocked. Admittedly, a fair amount of that decline could be attributed to 'instos manipulating the stock down to scoop up stop losses', but we shouldn't rule out the fact that not every holder is in it for the long-term, therefore some very lucrative profit-taking may be in order for those who were trading the upwards momentum.
SP has had an incredible run up and looks totally vertical on the yearly chart. Despite fundamentals pointing to a fair value in the $5-6 range, the stock needs a healthy retracement in order to find support. A strong base means the SP will run even harder with the next update (rev guidance, Apple TV, left field announcements etc)
Don't misconstrue my short-term sentiment as down-ramping - I've been in the stock since 41c (and adding all the way up) and am as bullish as the rest of you. My target for this time next year is $10-20 dependent on growth obviously. Charts don't continue on their vertical trajectory forever and especially with no recent news.
Short term: Hold
Long term: Screaming Buy
Expand
I love this rationale. Not up ramping or down ramping just a very logical view of things.
The formation of a support level at this price would protect from a much bigger drop if some less than desirable news did occur. Actually the news wouldn't even need to be bad, an example would be no upgrade to guidance. We're all expecting it, if it doesn't come will that cause disappointment for some?
Imo we're in for a very good 6-12 months ahead but I am not against a bit of sideways movement to support that push higher.