big daddy always out of control....friday, page-21

Here is a doozie, and apologies in advance for the size of the photos.

This is the top of the 1938 rally. I plotted it in 2009 and that other day while looking at the current market, I thought to myself, "Chris, you've seen this before." So I found the 1938 chart in a folder of old charts and took a closer look. It looked similar, but today looked a condensed version of then. And so it is.

There is a 65 day creeping trend down into a tweezer double bottom 26 and 28 September. 28 September is marginally lower. From 28 September, there is then a 42 day rally into THE high before a 19 day down.

Taking the first 65 day decline and comparing it with our high on 29 November (day after Thanksgiving) into the low 18 December (19 days) give the current move at just under 30% of the 1938 move in time (19 / 65 = 0.2923076)

So in 1938 from the tweezer low to rally high was 42 days.

42 x 30% = 12.6 days.

From our 18 December low to 31 December high was 13 days.

Then in 1938 there was a fall from the high for 19 days (9 - 28 November).

19 x 30% = 5.7 days.

From our 31 December high to 6 January low is 6 days.

Here is another shot of the last part of 1938/9 lower high before things got ugly. It went from 28 November low to 5 January lower high being 38 days.

38 x 30% = 11.4 days

6 Janaury plus 11 days is next Friday 17 January which also happens to be the completion of the NASDAQ 144 vibration. It was however a lower high in 1938, and a higher high is expected here, in the techs that is, DJI SPX might be different.