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27/08/17

21:06

Post #: 26791635
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Originally posted by oggede ↑

First off, congrats for holding this stock since 2015. It looks like you've done extremely well. You sound like one of the well balanced people here willing to examine both sides of the coin.

Before I respond to your post I'll just reply to some other users here. In regards to the "pyramid scheme" reference what I'm saying is that it resembles a "pyramid scheme" in which short term profits are being generated in an unsustainable business model. The grow is implied that it will continue at current record rates when in fact it's likely to have reached a peak. It resembles a "multi level marketing" business where associates go out and try and close as many sales as possible before the trend begins to die or change.

Why do I think it's peaked? I base this on the fact that the "Big Review TV" brand is worthless and not growing. Yes, the amount of content is growing but it's consumption isn't keeping up with production. Effectively there's an over supply of content coming on at a continued increased rate. It's like when all your friends have joined a multi level marketing company and have already asked you 10 times to join. At some stage everyone has been asked and there's no one left to join.

I suspect this is what has happened or is about to happen in Australia. This is why international expansion is not just convenient, it's necessary. It's also likely that 90% of the success is only coming from 10% of the users. So only a small fraction of businesses are benefiting from the "Big Review TV" platform while the vast majority of other businesses are just 'keeping up with the Jones". I believe churn rates will drastically change soon, it's just not being reflected in the numbers as most businesses are holding out to see what the trend will be. You'll be surprised how fast churn rates can change once the 'heard has been spooked'.

This would all be a mute point if consumption was increasing at a faster rate but it isn't. As each business joins it further degrades the platform, basically saturating it and making each add on more worthless. Soon enough the returns will drop back down to traditional methods and Google or Facebook advertising will be providing better returns on investment.

I guess it is a fair point to say this is some kind of "1st pillar" of a wider revenue model. However, it seems rather convenient and hopeful to suggest this. I think the market is getting ahead of itself, relying on short term profits to cover growth costs. I don't think any business has achieved global dominance on profit alone. I believe BIG will raise more capital soon before they inform the market of a turning point. They will see the trend change long before the numbers begin to show it and raise a substantial amount. This will cap the stock and push all of the long term risk back onto current shareholders. I see no further upside from here. Early investors have effectively gotten lucky off this digital 'land grab' and my advice to them is to sell now or free carry.

Re: Leanne Graham. I do have a grudge against her. Mainly because she's good looking. It's not that I have anything against good looking females in business, it's just that the public see her as some kind heroine, when in fact her track record is woeful. To claim she was responsible for part of Xero's success is BS. It's almost as if the media want her to be a hero when in reality there are lots of other less attractive/less high profile females more worthy of attention.

And yes, this is just one big giant troll.

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You would do well to see a psychologist my friend.

BIG Price at posting: $1.40 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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