There is a lot of misinformation on this thread, so I thought I would chip in with my 2 cents.
To clarify- my thoughts below:
- Afterpay is not simply a payments company, nor is it a finance company in any way. @ValueTrader82 (I'm not really sure what a value trader is...seems like an oxymoron)- Flexigroup, ozforex, even zipmoney are not in any way valid comparisons for this sort of business.
- Afterpay charges a merchant fee upfront (Looks approx ~4% from data presented so far, although this is dynamic), then pays the rest to the merchant and collects from the customer at a maximum of 56 days. It appears as if the average is actually lower than the maximum 56 day period.
- the net transaction loss, which is continually decreasing is 0.8% currently
- the total margin for each transaction is therefore likely to be somewhere between 2-3% when factoring in all the other costs.
- there appears to be sufficient data to inform what the net transaction losses are likely to be in the future given that many of these 'loans' have been completed already.
- for those interested in investing in this company, I suggest reading the investor presentation as the business vision is clearly articulated.
Now given that this capital is continually recycled (this is where it is different to a typical loan), there are between 6-9 of these loans per year with the same capital, given a ROFE between 12-27% for the year. With scale, better data and better transaction integrity and repeat customers, the margin is only likely to increase going forward (eg. if you tighten to 3% and reduce payback to 30 days you get a 36% return). Whatever way you look at this, it is highly likely to exceed the cost of either equity or debt funding. I modelled the cashflows depending on the growth rates of the company fairly simply with a maximum 56 day payback period using an annualised 150m revenue as the current base. If growth is <30% there actually would not need to be any requirement for additional funding with this business model and 19m in the bank (obviously not the case), With a GR of 100% pa, additional funding would be required in > 3 months, at 200%pa, this is 6 weeks. Given that the pace of this appears to be higher (at some point between last Q and now, the annualised rates have gone from 85m to 150 or a 76% increase in 3.5 months), there will be a need for funding imminently, which appears to be very close to being financed via this receivables facility (I am not sure of the terms).
Irrespectively given the high rates of return with this business model (if my numbers are correct), there shouldn't be any difficulties financing it. Given the strength of the shareprice I would prefer initial equity financing as I feel that this would be a much more solid base from which to scale rapidly. There would appear a very long runway for growth.
Valuation on this is extremely tough and I am not a holder, but rather a very interested observer given my holding in touchcorp. I can't buy this at these prices as it just doesn't meet my risk tolerance, but by the same token my initial observations certainly suggest that this is a very viable business model and the opportunity if executed correctly could be quite enormous.
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