I think Skol has the most likely explanation: The message is out...

I think Skol has the most likely explanation: The message is out (even though its been out for two months) that CEO Kruger is going to focus on improving efficiencies, integration, and bottom line performance of divisions rather than continue the acquisition spree (top line).

Another likely reason for the price jump today might be that at least one analyst bumped up TOL's 12-month target and switched to a BUY from HOLD. TOL's average target price moved from $3.40 to $3.60 today on InvestSmart. Don't know which analyst, but here is the InvestSmart analyst site:
http://www.investsmart.com.au/shares/broker_consensus.asp?SecurityID=TOL&ExchangeID=ASX&Recommendation=SHOWALL

As always, DYOR.