big pharma take over, page-2

Hi Surfer....

Nobody can predict the T/O offer.... but the last time this happened it was Amgen taking over Biovex for $1 Billion.

The $1Billion was comprised of $425 Million up front, followed by installments of the remaining $575 Million as milestones were met.

Pharmas have more choice at the moment.... and the evolution of "combination with others" has increased this choice. Pharmas will be sitting on their hands waiting for excellent Clinical data to emerge from wherever.... before committing the big dollars..... and we believe Cavatak is rapidly accumulating the impressive Clinical data sought by such Pharmas. But nothing is set in concrete.... certainly since "combination" trials have emerged.

To give some answer to your question.... and I stress it will be solely based on the Amgen/Biovex deal.... if the same deal was to be put to VLA, the share price would be justified at approximately $4.90 JUST ON THE UPFRONT PAYMENT. Then there would be the remaining milestone payments.... and if all satisfied the criteria set in the deal, the share price would escalate to approximately $11.50

This is simple mathematics of dividing the two parts of $1 Billion by VLA's 87,000,000 shares on issue.

All theoretical, yet logical, based on a simplistic comparison with Amgen/Biovex.....if we lived in that very elusive perfect world.

Am I expecting $11.50?.... no!!
Why?.... Amgen got their fingers burnt to some degree.... others would know that.... and collectively an offer would not be as generous.

We believe Cavatak is a better product than Amgen's purchase. We know Cavatak has little to no side effects.
We are currently trialling at a better rate than the equivalent of Amgen's trial at the same point.
So why don't I expect $11.50?.... I believe there is a God, I just don't think he would be THAT kind to me.