Looks like there is no leaks on this RigWe have had some very...

Looks like there is no leaks on this Rig

We have had some very good info during the drilling, both from Jacka and people on this board helping us all to understand what was going on the implications of the mud weights, the oil shows and mud loss etc.

And may I say a big thanks to those people

I suspect everyone on the Rig and in Cooper and Jacka have been told to keep absolute tight on test info by Dragon Oil, who will certainly buy out Cooper, and more than likely, at least 50% of Jackas interest, if not 100% at a premium.

As we know Dragon desperately wants a 2nd source of production outside of Turkmenistan. At the moment Dragon is on a very low PE valuation because of the perceived political risk of all its assets in Turkmenistan.

Dragon is also in Iraq (does not count – service contract) and Afghanistan which will never get done, never, the place is crazy, (Politian’s are as bad as the Taliban).

So Tunisia is the best hope Dragon have (in the short term) of securing a 2nd source of production. Further Dragon are not used to working with other IOCs, so they will want 100% of Tunisia.

Hence even if this well is a disaster, (which it is not), Dragon will still want to buy out Cooper and Jacka.

The downside of the Dragon buyout is; Dragon is going to have Cooper jumping through loops during these test to help them verify the commercial value of this deal.

2P oil reserves in Tunisia are worth +$10 a barrel. I was actually surprised by the number of oil companies getting involved in Tunisia recently; DNO, Circle Oil and EnQuest, all in the last 3 months. The EnQuest deal was interested, initial payment of $10 /B and an earn out capped at $18 /B. I suspect Cooper / Jacka will target similar, and I can’t see Dragon objecting.

The potential resource in Jacka’s Tunisian block is c 200m 2P with this well, and a further c 500m Cs in the block.

I am still holding to my 100m 2P with this well
But lets say its 50m x $10 = $500m
Jacka at 15% = $75m = c $0.21/ share



So I suppose, my the big question to the experts on this board is:

How soon after the Tests will we get a 2P figure?
Even an estimate by Cooper / Jacka. Remember Cooper what to sell, so they will want publicity to attract buyers against Dragon, and a CPR to follow.

Many thanks