big sales

current estimate of ATC sales is US$600M in the Feb 2009 Independent Report

this is based on a sale price of about US$300 per pt month

any increase in that sale price would directly increase the current valuation...

The 14th Annual HIV Drug Guide has recently been released
http://positivelyaware.com/2010/10_02/14th_annual_hiv_drug_guide.shtml

it includes the Average Wholesale Price (AWP) for all the other HIV drugs in 2010.

as well as a general 10% increase on last year, here are the other nrti prices

3tc us$432 300mg
ftc us$437 200mg

tdf us$771 300mg

abc us$581 600mg
azt us$505 (generic us$365) 300mg
ddi us$425 400 mg
d4t us$456 (generic us$411) 40mg

and other key hiv drugs
Isentress us$1074
Reyataz us$1077
Prezista us$1102

What chance do you think of a new nrti, that treats pts resistant to other nrti (which are always priced higher), and is significantly more eficacious, with a 800 mg dose (more api to produce), being priced at us$300 per month?

So, say ATC can sell for the princely sum of a conservative $600 per month, that would double income over that assumed in the independent report...

and that would double the current valuation... to $300-$450M
and share price estimate to 40-55c...

and then increase that from the reduced risk and proximity to market since the independent report over 14 mths ago...

where is that partner and just what will they pay!