EL8 3.68% 35.3¢ elevate uranium ltd

big seller, page-16

  1. 170 Posts.
    I hear where you're coming from midlife, but I think you miss my point. Assuming we get a good outcome from the scoping study, I can't see how the shareprice of MEY could go much lower than it is (assuming the world markets don't keep dropping 3% every night). Yes, many capital raisings have historically resulting in the price falling towards the issue price and below, but I have never seen as many heavily discounted capital raisings as has taken place over the last 18 months - and without having the numbers in froNT of me, I'm guessing (so happy to stand corrected), but many (or maybe even most) of their share prices never got close to the issue price. Take RIO (June 09), PNA (May 09), all the major banks, half the industrials and every midcap miner who didn't go broke or get taken over during the crisis. So while your right and can no doubt quote a hundred examples, you could clearly quote just as many whose share price has take off after the capital raising because they have the cash to realise the value of their assets, which were being undervalued by the market in the first place.

    One perfect and probably the most relevant example is the last capital raising WME (at the time) did. On 1 June 2009 the company announced that it would be raising nearly $10m by issuing shares at 12c underwritten by Patersons. The shareprice closed at 14.5c on 27 June before going in to a trading halt on 28 June. The price then jumped to the mid 20's and stayed around 18-20c until December 2009. We all know what has happened since, but it would be ridiculous to suggest that this is due to the impact of that capital raising. So tough call to suggest a SP hammering is on the cards if/when we have another one - particularly given the experience over the last 18 months with others and our own experience in June and not to mention how relatively undervalued the project is at current price.

    Anyway, always enjoy a healthy debate but my point is not to bang heads about a minor point of what the price might do after a raising - which is all just speculation anyway.

    I completely agree that a capital raising is on the cards - the company has publically flagged this already. But I don't think it's the likely explanation for the sell off this week. Everything hinges on the results of the Scoping Study - if it's good, there will be plenty of new buyers stepping in.

    Only time will tell about your 2). I've disclosed where my money is on that point.

    And we'll agree to disagree on the timing of the takeover. If the scoping study is good, Areva might have their hand forced to make a play earlier than later - remembering that plenty of other people want what we have!!

    Whether we agree or not, good to hear your different views and perspective! Keeps us all honest, on our toes and constantly thinking.

    Cheers

 
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