Hi everyone, just ran some numbers on the Mandilla Gold Project, and the results are staggering at current gold prices.
Mandilla’s original Scoping Study used a conservative A$2,750/oz gold price, but with gold currently at A$4,600/oz, we can extrapolate using a simple linear approach based on the rate of change observed in the provided Scoping Study sensitivity data.
The calculated rate of change based on the last two data points (A$2,875/oz and A$3,000/oz) is as follows:
• NPV increases by A$0.544M per A$1/oz rise in gold price
• IRR increases by 0.072% per A$1/oz rise in gold price
• EBITDA increases by A$0.824M per A$1/oz rise in gold price
• Free Cash Flow increases by A$0.824M per A$1/oz rise in gold price
Applying these sensitivity rates to a gold price of A$4,600/oz, we get:
• NPV increases to A$1.45 billion (vs A$442M at A$2,750/oz)
• IRR rises to 208%, indicating strong profitability
• Payback period reduces to less than 7 months
• LoM EBITDA increases to A$2.5 billion
• Free Cash Flow reaches A$2.3 billion, demonstrating strong cash generation
At a ~A$200M market cap (post MXR takeover), Astral appears significantly undervalued relative to the A$1.45 billion NPV at A$4,600/oz gold price.
A typical valuation benchmark for mining stocks is 0.3x NPV, which would value Astral at A$438M, more than double its current market cap.
Beyond Mandilla’s core economics, recent resource expansion through Feysville and the MXR acquisition strengthens the project’s outlook, potentially enhancing mine life and production scale.
Mandilla is shaping up as a high-margin, cash-generating project, well-positioned to benefit from sustained high gold prices. With the PFS on the horizon and multiple growth catalysts ahead, Astral’s upside potential is hard to ignore.
(20min delay)