Happy new year to all holders or prospective holders, in the first full day of trading and full trading week of 2016.
I am predicting a big week for FAR and I am going out on a limb and predicting 10 cents by Friday!
Why do I think this will be a big week?
1. JP's prediction that flaring should be completed by the 7th - 10th, will see FOMO kick in with many wanting to be a part of what I think will be the best stock of 2016.
2. FAR and Senegal getting increasing exposure over the last few weeks a. Named a top takeover target for 2016 by Malcy (23/12/2015) and a top tip for 2016 b. RBC analyst naming FAR as his preferred investment in that sector. c. Mycharttrades analysis d. Comments from Macky Sall claiming significant growth based on own resources e. Increased trading on the last few days of 2015, with f. Increase in CNE's SP relative to Oil g. 35 cent target for FAR set by stockanalysis h. Advertisement for an engineer for Senegal by CNE (great find!), One step closer to commerciality
It certainly felt a lot like Christmas, the above would be a god send for any stock over the course of a year, however this all took place in the last 2 weeks...
In further summary from OOO we have;
Cairn up by 15% in a blink.
> FAR up by 20% from its 66 low - and on rising volume.
> Brent up by 10% plus in three sessions.
> US inventories and rig counts down.
> US oil bankruptcies up.
As the year grinds to a halt I have had a good think about what kept me in FAR and averaging down in what can only be described as a year from hell in the oil sector...comments that told me eveything I needed to know about SNE and it's prospects...
These are five comments written by or ascribed to management/CNE through conversations at IP's or other meetings, that met the criteria...there were others...
1: "FAR believes there is additional net pay and resource potential not included in the preliminary assessment of contingent resource estimates for the SNE field. This includes thin bed reservoir sands that, recent detailed post well analysis has indicated encouraging reservoir characteristics. "
Thas rather inoccuous statement says a huge amount about the likely size of SNE and comes after comments made earlier in the year that they needed more analysis to be done on these sands. It was done and as stated has indicated encouraging reservoir characteristics.
Whats so significant about that is the thin sands cover the whole aerial extent of SNE which is around 100sq kms and are the only sands they will encounter at SNE 3 ,BEL 1 and any other wells drilled in the outer regions beyond the heart of the structure . They also exist in the heart of the structure..SNE 3 will be a very important well ... this most likely led to the second important statement which came indirectly from a public meeting.
2 : "700 Mmbbl's will be a shoe in"
That comment made in a public forum by the MD would not be made lightly and could only apply to SNE alone...I tend to take these utterances with a grain of salt but remember the possible contingent resource is already 670 Mmbbl's and the field has increased in size through re processing done since discovery not to mention the reservior work mentioned in No 1.
3 : "Coring and wire line logging operations have been completed. Preliminary data which has confirmed the SNE-1 discovery and are in line with pre-drill expectations. "
The latest and rather bland understatement reeks of barely contained excitement,you just know the pre drill expectations were high...then we had Ooo's report from the EGM
If you look at the diagram of the SNE 1 well in recent presentations, it showed it intersecting some thinner sands and one thicker sand below, it shows two thicker sands but the second one was in the water zone. SNE 2 will bring that second thicker sand into the oil zone, it was a diagram and as such would not be to scale just indicative...
4: CNE applying large Contingent resources to SNE within days of announcing the discovery , it's self explanatory, the data was that good...
5: That SNE can be economic with $35 barrel oil...
My New years wish is to see SNE confirmed as a project that can proceed to production on it's own, not requiring FAN, Bellatix, it's BH sibblings or the two SNE look a likes to bring it up to size but to have them as plug in bonus Elephants...I believe I will get my wish ...
Have a great new Year guy's and gal's , we have a great forum and I hope it stays that way as we enter the most important time for FAR since it's discoveries...possibly/likely 5 more back to back wells this coming year with high odds on getting an "official" commercial declaration...
(20min delay)