There's really three possible outcomes from here - any potential agreement falls through, an agreement is made but it is not in shareholder's favour or an agreement is made and it is in favour of shareholders.
The problem is, all the stakeholders in this agreement all have conflicting interests which are pretty much mutually exclusive - Amgen want the best possible deal on medical devices, Unilife wants to survive and the clock is ticking, shareholders want the best deal possible which is a huge injection of capital for minimum return to Amgen (i.e. 20% stake in the company) boosting the share price significantly.
I don't think the deal is bigger than we all think... I think the deal is more complex than we all think. A 15m deposit is clear indication of how big the deal is in terms of the amount of capital involved. I made a bad call two days ago thinking a deal had been struck, not realising the Nasdaq had the day off (apparently stock markets need weekend and days off too to rest).
A deal will be struck within the next 10 days, whether that deal is favourable to us or not. I don't think it is in Amgen's interest to backstab Unilife shareholders, they are bigger and better than that. Unilife is small to them, I think the deal will strike a good balance between all major parties and that is what is taking the time. I'd be surprised if Orbimed wasn't being consulted with too.
It's highly unlikely Amgen will do a total buyout of Unilife, they don't want the added risk or the responsibility of running a startup medical devices company. But they will have a say on where Unilife goes from here.
Pretty exciting really, I'm holding for now... if the deal is good I will consider buying another parcel if the share price doesn't overshoot to the Kuiper belt.
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