biggest. getting back 2 you re citrofresh.

Hi Biggest,

As per your suggestion the other day, I revisited Citrofresh for a more thorough look.

Here's what I've come up with

Their product for animal ingestion is imo a non event.
From the information on their website..( in particular a powerpoint presentation they have ) it would appear to be a different formulation to their other products.
They do not claim it has any direct antibacterial action, but acts only as a stimulant to the natural immune system.
This is a very questionable claim in my opinion. The basis of their "animal biocite" appears to be vitamin C. There is doubt about whether or not Vitamin C ( Ascorbic Acid ) does help the immune system. Indeed many humans do take it to ward off colds (which are viral not bacterial infections anyway) but there is no hard scientific evidence to support its efficacy..(It makes the manufactures & the retailers richer & as the recipient excretes it through the kidneys, they have very expensive urine.)
Most colds clear up in 7 days or less with treatment, & in a week or less without it.

CTFs website has all sorts or throw away gobblegook lines like "when the animal is in a period of rapid growth its immune system may be compremised "..... & the role of macrophages may be enhanced by..... etc " All unscientific nonsense and unproven wishful thinking..................................... And if they come up with absolute cr@p like that, I have to worry about some or the rest of it.

Specifically in relation to being in competition to Chemeq antibacterials.

I do not think it an issue as cmq products are specifically designed to attack acute bacterial infection in pigs/ poultrys ailementary tract. This occurs when the immune system is completely overwhelmed & even if it were possilbe to boost it, I doubt whether it would be sufficient to overcome the infection.
Having said that, if trials of ctf product produce measurable cost effective results for primary producers in the pig/poultry industries they will use it............. I just can't see that occuring.
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Using the spray on inert surfaces, in certain horticultural applications, & on perishable foodstuff....now that's another story & it looks good.
(Certainally the list of potential uses is extensive, & is on their website for anyone who is interested.)
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If its a good as is claimed, there is enormous potential for the product.

The kill list of susceptible organisms is impressive.
Lots of good stuff about it being safe,natural, non contaminating, bio-degradable etc......All of which is true ......(cant do any damage with the ingredients)....................... but does it really work !
I don't have a closed mind here, but I am very cautious of all biotec/ pharmaceutical companies & the claims they make.

It would appear they have had good initial success with preserving seafood..... for which it was originally developed.
( However, prior to using citrofresh, they only spayed the seafood with water, so it didnt have much to beat . Not being cynical here............ just realistic)
Although the company claims to have done much testing & have various badges & seals of approval, I would like to see some hard documented evidence from properly conducted trials with end users to support their claims.

Claims like " it penetrates the biofilm" & so on need to be substantiated far more thoroughly in field tests, not just in the lab, before for example a hospital would use it for infection control. Certainally in medical & industrial/commercial use, no-one could afford to risk using it unless it really was more effective than their existing infection control regimes.

Therein lies the real challenge for ctf ...... to prove to health authorities & other potential end users that it is better than the existing products currently being used,and that there is a cost benefit in changing.


A few other random comments/observations after reading all of the stuff on their website & looking at the thread on hotcopper

They do have a couple of $ mill cash.
The balance sheet referred to by sabretoothed as only having ~$200k was to the 30th June. ( BEFORE the capital raising ), .....so a capital raising is not likely in the near term.
However to market this thing properly will take a lot more than $2mil.
My guess is they intend funding advertising/ expansion out of existing sales & to this end I note they are getting a website up to sell their products in addition to their existing markets.

There is no indication of their current sales levels or their profitabiliy/ breakeven figure going forward.

The directors have been very generous with the number of options they have granted themselves. representing more than 25% of the existing capital of the company. Admittedly many of then are conditional on performance, so to that extent at least, it is encouraging.

There is no indication of how profitable the end product is after buying the concentrate from the managing director, although to be fair, we could not expect that figure to be made public.

Will have great difficulty in getting into domestic/household market. Coles/worth will not put it on their shelves unless there is demand for it, & without it on their shelves it is difficult for the public to know about it. Coles will not stock it anyway if ctf is direct marketing,( a couple of years ago in the dotcom boom Fosters took an interest in Wineplanet an internet wine marketing company & coles virtually stopped selling all fosters wines in retaliation for "going around them" & direct marketing to the public. Fosters eventually took full ownership of wineplanet & closed it down to appease coles)

Citrofresh has stated they have not patented the product because they do not want to disclose the formulation, but they have virtually disclosed the ingredients anyway. I doubt if a blend of fairly common ingredients could be patented anyway. I would therefore think any reasonably competent industrial chemist could come up with a "me too" product or maybe a better one if required....The real danger ( & they mention it in their recent prospectus ) is that if the product does work as well as they say, others may copy it in some way. So the price of success could be to be swamped by the multinationals.

As I have said in previous postings on biotec companies, the research & development phase, through to proving up a viable commercial product is a long one.
They appear to have done most of the early stuff & because the product is made from basically orange peel Ascorbic Acid & Citric Acid there will be no health or environmental issues, but they still need to convine the end users it works.......( If indeed it does)
And then it is a marketing issue.

This will not happen overnight.


Can we make a $ on the shares?

Realistically & practically, this is the important thing for us.


The potential reward if they are succesful is very good,.......... indeed, multiples of the present price , but the risks are still considerable imo.

From a technical viewpoint .............. we turn to Sabretootheds' comments as he is "the man " here.

Like all biotecs, it will get way ahead of itself price wise at some point.... but is that around now.. or much higher ?

I have no idea..................... fundamentally, there are too many inponderables.

For me at the moment at least, the risk reward ratio is not one I can satifactorily calculate so I will watch them closely.... but I won't be buying any.


Caveat emptor

Bendigo