Biggest threats to PRT, page-14

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paddling

47 Posts.

10/03/17

12:47

Post #: 23249510
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Originally posted by Wing it ↑

1. Decrease in revenue, ie loss of advertising revenue to digital platforms.

As far as PRT is concerned, revenue can drop by 50% to 13.5 million and they will still be sitting on a p/e ratio of 8. I accept that revenue is under pressure but the drop is forecasted to be in single percentage figures. That means in about 7 years you would have made most if not all your purchase price back in dividends (a lot less if the payout ratio was increased back to 50% or even higher). An almost no risk investment at todays prices!

Hi Wing it, I think your number 1 point is the biggest risk. Just to be clear, are you talking about single digit revenue falls or earnings falls? Because a single digit revenue fall is amplified at the operating profit line, as not all costs are variable.

Looking at the results from 2015 to 2016 Revenue fell from $259k to $239k (8%), whereas operating PBT (before intangible write-down) fell from $56m to $46m (18%). I think this year revenue & operating profit should be flat to a bit up, but this has been flattered by the Olympics. I guess the question is by how much - anyone know? And so what is the continuing underlying trend on revenue decline? If it continues at 8%, then revenue without the Olympics this year would be more like $220m, and next year $200m. And what would operating profit be next year in this scenario? Maybe in the $25-30m range (NPAT circa $20m). This would be a big step down, and extrapolating it out the market could ascribe an even lower multiple. This would crush the share price.

For the record, this isn't my base case, but just thought it worth further highlighting how I see the sensitivity / risk.

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PRT Price at posting: 29.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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