Based on the fact that I think the markets will be down till...

Based on the fact that I think the markets will be down till September.

BIL is sitting up there on a PE of 30 with no growth next year and limited growth 2003. I think the PEG ratio is at about 5.

I have an earnings growth model used by hedge fund. On that model based on current forecasts BIL does not become attractively priced till $4. This is the same model which said CPU was worth 2.50 when it was $8.

My current strategy is to look for the next monolith to fall and have a good ETO position when it does. Sort of a Turtles thing... you have to be in a few positions and take some pain then ride the big one. I was really stupid with SEV had the position got out at 3 to one when I should have stayed in and got 10 to one or more.

Some people argue that some companies traditionally trade at high PE and PEG ratios and always will. That may be true in bull markets but holders of CPU,MBL,MAY and CSL might not be so sure now.

I'll chuck the ball to you now, based on Aspect figures of EPS

VALUE Company All Ords Sector
P/E ratio 30.5 15.38 14.94
P/B ratio 4.12 1.62 1.84
P/E Growth ratio 5.80 1.04 0.64


Forecast EPS

Curr 2002 2003 --
EPS 32.9 31.5 36.4 --
DPS 20.5 20.0 21.4

Tell me why it is worth 10 bucks.

I'm not going to put the house on it because it is not sound money management. But theoretically if I am correct and pyramid it all up correctly it could be a really nice trade

We shouldn't fall out over this after all it's only a game.

As for people listening to me...Read the disclaimer below