ADO 0.00% 2.1¢ anteotech ltd

bill gates foundation press release , page-8

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    The most negative thing that anyone seems to say about ADO is the lack of tangible revenues resulting from M&G uses/royalties thus far, or criticism along the lines of "if it's so revolutionary why isn't it already out there/why aren't the royalties already flowing".

    Given prior presentations we know that M&G works in the hands of ADO scientists to deliver remarkable improvements to existing assays.

    The quarterly now tells us that these outstanding results can be replicated for major health science companies and their tests (5x sensitivity for BBI, lab based performance at POC for POC1).

    The process is being scaled up by BBI to see if these gains can again be demonstrated at a commercial scale (I expect they can, and that cost savings from its simplicity will also be demonstrated).

    If this comes to pass surely a commercial deal with BBI will eventuate, and not just for some high end, low volume, boutique tests (as with Bangs/Merck/Ebio). If they can demonstrate cost savings/performance improvements/simplification of manufacture or any combination of those they'll surely want to roll it out across their business - finally cracking this notoriously conservative sector.

    IF the BBI deal comes off as hoped the entire industry will have to sit up and take notice, it will prove the concept in the real world and commercial operation, competitors will no longer be able to toy with the idea of using M&G in theory or at a trial level in their labs, they'll have to move to compete. Operators in other sectors will realise that the product is real and now - science staff at all the majors will no longer have to convince the money men, they'll just point to BBI and be able to say "it's happening now and we're being left behind".

    All of this is why I think that when/if a BBI deal comes along it's likely to be exclusive and very large, and will justify a market cap with an extremely high P/E. Then there's POC1 and a huge queue behind them...

    Just like the next person, I don't want to lose money so I'd love to hear some contrarian opinion/thoughts/analysis.
 
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