Hi there Cashman I don't think that the current strength in the...

Hi there Cashman

I don't think that the current strength in the USD and corresponding weakness in other currencies (and gold) has much to do with interest rates. (The interest rate component in gold derivative pricing - and hence all gold pricing - is too small.)

I think that we are currently seeing a major retreat from risk and movement of cash back into the US in response to increases in global geopolitical tensions. When the world calms down, I would expect this to reverse, but I don't have a view when that reversal will take place.

Gold has an ambiguous position in these developments (that is reflected in its stagnant and confused price action). Some traders view it as a "safe haven" and are buying, while others see it as a commodity and are selling. I think that the COMEX traders who have been the nervous holders of the risk on long physical gold positions disgorged by the ETFs seem happy to wait and see, which means Gold is having trouble breaking under $1210.

Just my thoughts.
Cheers.