HCH 1.87% $1.05 hot chili limited

Rough numbers here...PEA suggests average annual production will...

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    Rough numbers here...

    PEA suggests average annual production will be 209,000 lb. copper and 49,000 oz. gold. The project is expected to produce total revenue of $13.5 billion and total free cash flow of $3.28 billion (post-tax, after operating costs, capital costs, and royalties).

    Also suggesting a current NPV with an 8% discount of $1.1b using base case copper price of $3.96/lb for copper and $1,750/oz for gold. At current SOI (we will assume based on all accounts that there will be no more cap raises, and non-dilutive funding will finance the project), that gives us a price of $9.21 per share (1.1b/119.4m SOI).

    This price estimate doesnt include any hits we get with the recently started 30,000 drilling programme nor does it take into acount the eventual copper price rises due to low supply. To that point, for every US$0.10/lb increase above US$ 3.85/lb Cu price, US$100 Million (approximately) is added in post-tax NPV8%.

    To summarise, whatever way you look at it and whatever base prices you use, HCH is one of, if not the, largest scale copper exposure sitting on the ASX outside of the majors, strategically placed to capitalise on the future copper shortfall.

    I implore you to do some research around future demand/supply rates for copper and come to your own conclusions about what the copper price in 2028/29 looks like when we go to production. From there you can get a pretty good idea of how profitable this monster could become.

    Personally I think it is too large of a resource for a major not to gobble us up before then for a significant premium (which we know CE will demand), but I am no fortune teller.

    All in my own humble opinion, again, do your own research and come to your own conclusions.
 
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