my notes from Crux interview a couple of weeks ago;
100ktpa Cu and 50kozs Au, Cu volatile, this cycle is driven by a lack of supply, look to deep metal markets which are more mature for comparison, Cu 2.5% CAGR plus 2.5% decline in copper head grade each year so that’s a 5% increase needed or an Escondida needed every year, funding has been difficult in the last 15 years, 14 years into journey with key permitting hit already, M&A space, where are the new mines HC is one of only 6 projects capable of 100ktpa, survived the downturn of the last cycle, Cap intensity is $40k tonne for Anglo HCH $10k tonne, high elevation CAPEX 2x even 3x forecasts, CR timing in sector, PFS end of 2024 into BFS then finance on the table late 2026 into 2027, while we were navigating pretty poor equity markets, NA market is where our future lies, CF first in line for large scale projects, take out low risk drilling opportunities, finance CF we’ve secured water rights to unlock numerous Cu developments, we’re at the gate to the port of that water supply, Tier one infrastructure groups, Tech and Newmont, only maritime concession in this part of chili, second application 4kltr/sec seawater and desal brine to supply salt water and desal to the region, no longer allowed to take water from the ground, sell the equity portion, HCH all assets into Newco at end of the year into monetised JV, utilise as private company and sell down HCH equity stake to fund CF, water coming to CF in 2028, sell the company, Antofagasta outsourced their water requirements to Transelec which reduced their Capex by $350mil, unlock those developments within the region, ESG component for those who are behind HCH will see there aren’t shortcuts, 12 years of investment, orebody process better with salt water, government reduce footprint with just one pipeline which reduces capital burden for others, reduces impact on the environment, aquifers drained, pipes, desal plants in the area plus HCH supply water to others in the area, low altitude / high altitude it’s why we’re low capital intensity and low risk projects will get the attention in this Cu cycle, PEA mid last year PFS open pit 70% cave 30% build further mining inventory in open pit 70/30 open pit/cave, keep enhancing till funding, not chasing exploration targets, consolidation Comeco, 4 or 5 open pits 0.5-1.3% Cu sulphide pits exposed, pay option deals, deposits sensitive to grade, looking for high grade, bulk mine life, open pit, PFS end of year, EIA mid next year, Water PFS end of year, parallel studies on the port bulk concentrate 1.4mtpa, newsflow water off-takers in the area, continuation of aggressive of strategy that we don’t currently own, plus others in Latin America and step out of our single asset class, turn on drill rigs for priority targets, Cu will lift all projects but we saw that with FMG
Expand
(20min delay)