I've been giving it some thought.
The Nido assets we're set for a cheap sale of $20m USD to tamarind which fell through after 3 years of farting around because Tamarind has almost been going broke themselves from what I have seen with Triangle and other subsidiaries in NZ etcetera. So the assets are worth at least that. So the share price we have currently is ridiculously undervalued Bangchak themselves took a $40m USD loss on the assets just to exit the upstream industry. If you tack that $20m USD sale price which fell through on to the existing price we should be around $46m - 50m AUD market cap (9.5 cents). Let alone the fact the Canadian assets probably have a substantially higher asset value than the market is giving the company at the moment.
Secondly I've done a bit of research on the Philippines. They are in dire straits with rolling brown outs, declining gas causing electricity cost spikes etcetera.
Bleak outlook seen for Philippines upstream sector | Philstar.com
Fitch issues “bleak” outlook for Ph upstream industry | Power Philippines
The lack of exploration funding has left them completely hamstrung, the issues like force majeure on SC58 and China's increasing influence in the region has left majority of debt funding options to explore for new oil and gas fields crippled. Also the majors are in retreat and seeking green energy credentials against a rising tide of investor activism.
Sacgasco's operating model of not using debt to fund exploration and being nimble works in this scenario. Also as much as there will be national filipino companies willing to invest or high net worth individuals who want to aid the national crisis and line their own pockets in the doing of said national service they do not know the area, they do not know the seismic so they would not invest without backing someone who does.
Joanne Kendrick has that experience we got these assets for $1 as a quick tax write-off but also probably as Bangchak was receiving pressure from the phillipines government to release the assets to someone more willing to get them going.
I do not think Sacgasco is going to die wondering Exco (Executive Committee) is going to get these assets on a path to realising their potential and soon. Ideally I'd like them to farm down the assets enough to be free carried or for limited outlay. West Linapacan to redevelop was going to cost Nido $100m USD and because they had 22% of the field $22m USD was their share. However maybe there is cheaper way to get this going. Which is what we need to see.. the plan. I'd say it was fair and I would agree with Gary Jeffery's statement that he felt they we're scrambling because people in the philippines want action to solve their energy crisis now!
Strap yourself in... we may be on a rocket ship soon.
(20min delay)
