No expert but my reason for a significant hold at these prices are:
- My understanding is they have patents on many of theyl specific bacteria they have studies on
- Studies are supporting health benefits (17% LDL cholesterol reduction is very significant)
- You are right it’s product based which generally have high costs and low margins for most products . But bacteria production costs basically nothing and the plastic bottle is cost irrelevant. Hence once factory set up costs are done, ramp up ability is huge margin. Think Lovisa but even better
- I actually don’t really believe in Pro Biotics (being a Doctor), but it’s like vitamins. People believe and want them and will likely have a placebo effect
- I believe Probiotics might be on a 20-30 year “run” like vitamins and Blackmores.
- I feel this company is a terrific marketing company and have first mover advantage.
- Oz itself is still exponential but the real deal is UK and we haven’t even talked about the US yet. UK in itself will see this $20 in 5-10 years if they execute
- The report showing revenue predictions to 27, but more importantly ebitda margins expanding to 25%, I believe are extremely conservative (given UK potential alone).
- Extend the exponential conservative growth to mid 30’s we could have a 50% ebitda margin on 100x or more) current revenue. Do the maths on that.
- All the above says to me this is a unique situation just starting.
Definitely worth taking a position, even at these prices!
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