looked at this counter. some nice volumes in the recent past! so delved deeper. several questions:
have they got their second biodieselplant in malaysia commissioned? no news on this 250000 tonnes facility september commissioning was announced.
if this is not online, the US$ 3.5 bn valero deal is a smoke pipe folks. anyway, the option to valero means naught. valero has not paid a dime for those options! will you and i get options without paying a penny? hell, i will take 100 million options at any strike price if someone gifts them to me for nothing. valero has not bought any biodiesel yet to get these options free. nice but bad idea for a leg up in the stock price. everyone has been buyig the stock with the 45 cents options strike price as benchmark. i do not take any free lunch as a benchmark guys.
mission has announced few details for such a large order. how r they funding it? is valero committed to buy the biodiesel? at what price, how much? or is it just a best case deal which happens if all stars shine and is a lame duck otherwise? no indication or price or mechanism. tough to put my bucks behind such an announcement.
what is happening to jatropha oil which has been long promised? going by appendix 4c, mission ain't making no money on palm biodiesel. they seem to haev done only one sale in december in the whole quarter! US$ 5.5 mn sale in a month or US$ 60 mn a year if they sell each month. how will they sell the projected US$ 450 mn per year (US$ 3.5 bn divided by eight years). They seem to be buying material on cash and selling on credit. that means a shitload of capital for valero deal if they sell large volumes. is another large dilution on its way chappies?
seems a better idea to stay out of the stock and get in at the right priuce when the company announces these. seems a pure wager and that too without what odds in favour.
MBT Price at posting:
$19.50 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
