Bionomics, page-10

trader/investor/research resistance 0.891supp0.732 trader/investor/research resistance 0.891supp0.732.
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http://www.stockhouse.com.au/bullboards/viewmessage.asp?no=5122129%20%20&tableid=1
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3/5/02 12:11:58 PM
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The price action is indicative (view) of a possible announcement occurring at sometime in the near future--for volumes have been rising and on trade data the lows are higher than the previous lows and the highs are higher than the previous highs.
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http://www.equis.com/free/taaz/gannangles.html
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High was 1.53 September 1st 2000 (Low 1.15 closed 1.51---vol 1.51 million)
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1.53 x 82.5% equals 1.26.225--------1.53 minus 1.26.225 equals 27.225
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27.225 x 82.5% equals 18.335625----27.225 minus 18.335625 equals 8.890625
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Fridays Trade data dated 3/4/2002.
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High 8.6 Low 8.4 Close 8.6 bollinger band 4/4/2002---lower 0.572 middle 0.732 upper 0.891
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support is middle end of bollinger 0.732-----resistance is 0.891
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http://www.equis.com/free/taaz/fibonacci.html
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Low BNO---dated May 21st 2002 0.55 (close 0.57 high--0.59)
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0.55 x 38.2% equals 0.2101 0.55 plus 0.2101 equals 5.7101---bollinger lower 3/4/2002 0.572 close May 1st 2002 0.57
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Fridays Trade data.
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http://stocknessmonster.com/
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BNO Bionomics Ltd FPO
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Total Trades Total Volume Last Trade V.W.A.P* 83 564,605 86 85
* Volume Weighted Average PriceTradeNumber (s) TimeLast Traded Price Volume Change Value Numberof Trades
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80 - 83 3:56:45 pm 86 83,751 1 $72,026 4
77 - 79 3:55:53 pm 85 16,249 1 $13,812 3
73 - 76 3:52:27 pm 84 13,800 1 $11,592 4
70 - 72 3:13:33 pm 85 20,000 1 $17,000 3
62 - 69 3:00:00 pm 84 61,750 1 $51,870 8
56 - 61 2:09:47 pm 85 30,651 1 $26,053 6
55 1:48:09 pm 86 6,000 1 $5,160 1
32 - 54 1:42:13 pm 85 210,491 1 $178,917 23
30 - 31 11:30:41 am 86 4,400 1 $3,784 2
29 11:11:42 am 85 5,000 1 $4,250 1
23 - 28 10:53:21 am 86 10,659 1 $9,167 6
20 - 22 10:44:03 am 85 33,604 1 $28,563 3
17 - 19 10:40:56 am 84 10,000 1 $8,400 3
1 - 16 10:29:20 am 85 58,250 $49,513 16
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Bionomics - trading research BNO. 3/5/02 12:11:58 PM 5122129
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http://www.stockhouse.com.au/bullboards/viewmessage.asp?no=5122129
--------------------------------------------------------------------- The price action is indicative (view) of a possible announcement occurring at sometime in the near future--for volumes have been rising and on trade data the lows are higher than the previous lows and the highs are higher than the previous highs.
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BNO Description: BIONOMICS LIMITED ORDINARY Market Status: Normal Time: 03/05/2002 - 12:14:34
Last Change In Value Change In Percent
0.8500 0.0100 1.1905%
High Low Opened Closed Trades Volume Traded All Ordinaries
0.8600 0.8400 0.8500 0.8400 43 219,354 12:14:34 3,314.8998 0.1087%
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Buyers Sellers Quantity Units Price Price Units Quantity
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1 35,201 0.8500 1 0.8600 44,000 3
1 13,000 0.8400 2 0.8700 22,320 3
1 6,000 0.8300 3 0.8800 21,020 3
3 20,000 0.8000 4 0.8900 20,200 2
2 6,000 0.7900 5 0.9000 74,674 5
2 13,650 0.7800 6 0.9100 2,292 1
1 4,800 0.7500 7 0.9200 8,736 3
1 4,000 0.7300 8 0.9400 8,200 1
2 20,787 0.7100 9 0.9500 12,950 2
1 3,000 0.6900 10 0.9600 16,342 3
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Message Thread:
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Bionomics - gene technology research - salus - 28/4/02 1:59:06 PM
BionomicsLibertyOne HIH--sh##t ERG Pasbullboard121 - 3/5/02 6:51:40 PM
Bionomicstrading research BNO. - bullboard121 - 3/5/02 12:11:58 PM
Bionomicstradingresearchhugevolumetodaybullboard1212/5/02 4:50:49 PM
BionomicsSalustraderesearch threadOzPlatbullboard1212/5/02 12:02:20 PM
Bionomicstrading research1/5/20028.02pmbullboard1211/5/02 8:02:12 PM
Bionomics - trading opinion. BNO - bullboard121 - 1/5/02 1:45:38 PM
Biotrade/research/post/thread7.4bullboard12130/4/02 2:51:10 PM
Bionomics - gene technology research - rolotomasi - 30/4/02 8:28:32 AM
Bionomics - gene technologyRoloresearchbullboard12129/4/02 10:58:26 PM
Whatisbionomics?The conceptClosingTheLoopbullboard12129/4/029:17:40 PM
BionomicsAustralian alliancesBNO. - bullboard121 - 29/4/02 9:05:28 PM
WhatisBionomics?Theconcept.(April 1995).bullboard12129/4/02 9:00:36 PM
Bionomicsgene technology research - bullboard121 - 29/4/02 8:40:37 PM
Bionomics - gene technology research - rolotomasi - 29/4/02 4:33:45 PM
Bionomics - gene technology research - bullboard121 28/4/02 2:27:46 PM
Bionomics gene technology research - bullboard121 - 28/4/02 2:13:32 PM
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SectorBNO.Healthcare/Biotechnot/strictly/Biotech+ healthcare
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Market cap--33 Million
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http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.asp?den=high&grid=N&vol=Y&sym=$BIOT
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05/03/02 o/h/l/c = 0.00 -26.19 -26.19 -26.19 -1.19 vol = 93000

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http://www.bionomics.com.au/tech_platform.asp
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Technology Platforms
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The world is witnessing a new era in medical research and discovery - the genomics era - as evidenced by the completion of the Human Genome Project. The identification of genes associated with the onset and progression of disease holds great promise for the future development of more specific and safer medicines.
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Bionomics is an active participant in this new era. We are using our platform technologies of whole genome screening, linkage analysis, positional cloning, high through-put mutation analysis and DNA Microarray to identify genes which can be used as validated drug targets (genes or gene products proven to have a role in the onset or progression of a disease). These targets are then used for the development of new drugs to prevent or treat the disease.
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Our driving force is to be a leading biotechnology company in the business of identifying, developing, and selling validated targets for new drugs, diagnostics and gene therapies.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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Sam Stovall, Senior Investment Strategist
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Earnings Roundup
In spite of the growing optimism amongst economists, there has yet been the follow-through in the form of upward trend in earnings expectations, judging by the continued weekly downward revisions for the aggregated earnings expectations for S&P companies by Standard & Poor's equity analysts.
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Investment Outlook
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The recent euphoria over better-than-expected growth in fourth-quarter GDP has melted away like spring snow. The start of the confessional season preceding firstquarter earnings reports again focused investors on the tepid conditions in some parts of the economy. Warnings of disappointing first-quarter sales by two major telecom equipment makers sent stocks temporarily into retreat.
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Economic Forecast
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The economic rebound has been quicker and stronger than expected. The data in recent weeks confirm that Americans refused to let the terror attacks slow spending for very long. Helped by the boost to income from last year's tax cuts and a surge in federal defense and security spending, the economy rose more sharply than estimated in the fourth quarter (1.4% annual rate) and is accelerating into the new year. We now expect near-4% growth in the first quarter, and for the full year.
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Political Pulse
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Estimates are so close to a balanced budget that small changes in revenues and spending are changing CBO estimates from surplus to deficits and back again. In January, the CBO projected an approximate $20 billion deficit this fiscal year due to the taxcuts and recession. Then early last week CBO shifted its estimate to a small $5 billion surplus for the year. Following the updated estimate, Congress passed an economic bill that wipes out the CBO estimate and more, putting estimates back into the deficit mode.
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Technical Analysis
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The recent action of the stock market has taken on the look of an elevator in a twostory building. There has been a lot of price movement with little or no progress. The environment for stocks remains extremely uncertain with many crosscurrents. This creates a great platform for traders but must be wearing thin on long-term investors. With heavy resistance overhead and good longterm support below, the markets' intermediate-term outlook is likely to be one of directionless trading.
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Sector Strategy
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Many investors mistakenly think that the old adage "buy low, sell high" is meant for momentum investors as well as value investors. We in New York City love to show friends from out of town the traffic signs that unequivocally state "Don't Even THINK About Parking Here." Veteran momentum investors like to offer a similar bit of advice: "Don't Even THINK About Buying Low Momentum Issues."
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Special Study
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The optimists are almost ready to announce the return of the halcyon days of the late 1990s boom markets and the new economy. The pessimists are declaring a false spring before its time. In what follows we will argue that for the economy the optimists aren't too far from right, but for the stock market the pessimists aren't all that wrong.
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EARNINGS ROUNDUP: CROSSCURRENTS
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Kenneth L. Shea, Director of Global Equity Research
It's not easy to be an investor these days. It seems that at virtually every turn they take, they are reminded of the growing signs of an economic recovery. Yet, in spite of the growing optimism amongst economists, there has yet been the follow-through in the form of upward trend in earnings expectations, judging by the continued weekly downward revisions for the aggregated earnings expectations for S&P companies by Standard & Poor's equity analysts.
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As has been the trend virtually continuously since early last year, the collective earnings forecast among S&P's analysts of S&P 500 index constituents continued to deteriorate from the prior month. These reductions in estimates continue to be broad-based among the S&P economic sectors, suggesting to us that continued reductions are likely. With fourth quarter 2001 earnings now fully tabulated, the result was a very dismal 25% year over year plunge, representing the fifth consecutive quarter of decline. The aggregated year-end earnings per share forecast by S&P analysts (a.k.a. "bottom-up" estimate) in 2001 came in at $38.70 (this estimate is slightly above the "top down" earnings per share estimate of David Wyss of $38), a 31% decline from the prior year's level. For the full year, particular tough yearly showings were seen in the Information Technology, Telecommunication Services, and Materials sectors. Poor earnings performances in these sectors more than outweighed positive earnings comparisons in the Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples sectors.
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With the coming of spring, perhaps the timing is right for a long-awaited upturn in earnings in the first quarter of 2002. As of mid-March, S&P analysts were projecting an approximate 6% increase in year over year earnings per share for the first quarter. S&P analysts also believe that subsequent quarters will see continued earnings progress, culminating in an approximate 36% increase in earnings for the full year, to $52.69. S&P analysts expect these gains to be led by a significant recovery in the Telecommunication Services, Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials sectors. This is not too surprising, as these economically-sensitive sectors have historically been the biggest beneficiaries of an upturn in economic conditions.
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At its current level of approximately 1153, the S&P 500 index is valued at approximately 22 times S&P's "bottom-up" estimate for operating earnings. It should be noted, however, that this estimate of $52.69 significantly exceeds S&P Chief Economist David Wyss' "top down" earnings per share estimate of $48. Using the so-called "Fed Model", or simply the computation of both the "bottom up" and "top down" forward 12-month S&P 500 operating earnings estimates divided by the yield on the 10-year Treasury Note, a reasonable range of fair value of the S&P 500 index is believed by S&P to be approximately 891 to 978, or about 18% to 29% below the mid-March level.
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SECTOR STRATEGY: MOMENTUM MANTRA
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Sam Stovall, Senior Investment Strategist
Momentum investors use prior results as a means to gauge future performance, since they believe that industries with superior performances attract the attention of other investors, who then jump on the bandwagon. This causes the momentum to continue.
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One reason why some momentum investors get burned, however, is that while they know when to buy, they don't know when to sell. And that's where the S&P Sector Scorecard - with its Relative Strength Rankings - comes in. The S&P Sector Scorecard, found on www.businessweek.com, shows price performances for the 115 sub-industries (these 115 sub-industries roll up into 59 industries and 10 sectors) in the S&P Super 1500 (the aggregate of the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600). What's more, each sub-industry index's six-month price performance (excluding dividends) is ranked from best to worst. Those in the top 10% get a Relative Strength Ranking (RSR) of 5, the next 20% get a 4, the middle 40% get a 3, the next 20% get a 2 and the bottom 10% get a 1. Even though these rankings are a handy look backwards, they have also provided guidance for the future.
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Embrace the Leaders, Ignore the Laggards
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Many investors mistakenly think that the old adage "buy low, sell high" is meant for momentum investors as well as value investors. They believe it is wise to embrace stocks or sectors with low relative price performances, since these investments have been battered in the past six or 12 months and, as a result, probably don't have much further to fall.
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We in New York City love to show friends from out of town the traffic signs that unequivocally state "Don't Even THINK About Parking Here." Veteran momentum investors like to offer a similar bit of advice: "Don't Even THINK About Buying Low Momentum Issues." Why? Just as high momentum attracts new investors, low momentum discourages new investors and causes existing investors to become increasingly disheartened.
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A Simple Strategy
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A simple strategy using the RSRs of the S&P 1500's sub-industries demonstrates the point of embracing strength and avoiding weakness. Take a look at the accompanying chart. The bar market "Buy 5, Sell 3" shows the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) that a hypothetical investor would have received from January 1996 through December 2001 had they purchased those S&P sub-industry indexes with an RSR of 5, and sold them when that sub-industry's RSR fell to 3. The performance was quite impressive, beating the broader market by more than two-to-one. (This back test assumes monthly rebalancing and does not account for taxes or commissions.)
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The bar market "Buy 1, Sell 3" on the other hand, demonstrates the soundness of the old saying "The Trend is Your Friend." In this case, the hypothetical investor chose to buck the trend by buying those S&P sub-industries with the lowest prior six-month price performance (RSR of 1) and held them until their RSR improved to 3. As can be seen, this was not a prudent discipline to employ, for not only did this investor's portfolio dramatically underperform the high momentum discipline, but it was also beaten by the less-expensive "buy and hold" approach by a more than three-to-one margin.
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Accompanying this article is a table showing current and historical relative-strength rankings for the sectors and sub-industries in the S&P Super 1500.
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Attaining similar performances to those found in the graph may be a bit more difficult, since exact replications of S&P sector/sub-industry indexes are not available on any exchange. Your results may be better or worse. In addition, what worked in the past may no longer work in the future. But the intent is clear. Historically, investors who have taken the "high" road over extended periods of time have been happier than those who have taken the "low" road.
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http://www.stockhouse.com.au/bullboards/viewmessage.asp?no=5019112%20&tableid=1
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http://finance.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,4094737%5E462,00.html
West rides Biotech boomThe Australian09apr02
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SHAREMARKET followers will tell you biotechnology has become the fashionable investment after the collapse of the dotcom bubble. Technicians who find new ways of helping scientists decode the mysteries of life itself stand to gain enormously. The Western Sydney Industry Awards recognise this new field of endeavour in more ways than one. The booming biotech industry in the region is being supported by the publication of BioWest - the directory of the biotechnology industry in Western Sydney. Launched last month by the Minister for Western Sydney, Kim Yeadon, the directory showcases the region's strong biotech sector for the first time. "Western Sydney has the potential to play a significant role in this world-wide industry worth more than $1 trillion," he said. "For the first time, Biowest - produced by the Office of Western Sydney - shows us exactly how big this industry already is in the region and the potential for growth." Sydney's west is home to more than 220 leading-edge biotech companies covering human health, pharmaceuticals, clinical trials and diagnostics to agriculture, horticulture, food, animal health, environment and bio-manufacturing. The best of these is ADInstruments at Castle Hill, a manufacturer of computer-based chart recording and analysis equipment for the life and physical sciences, revolutionising experimental procedures and helping scientists move from animal to human experiments. The company was started by Boris Schelensky and Michael McKnight in 1988 to develop diagnostic recording products for niche markets. The business has expanded to 70 people with exports to the US, China, Japan and throughout Europe, with further business possibilities in South America, India, Iran and Eastern Europe. "We started off with an idea and we implemented it and started exporting in 1990," Mr Schelensky said. "We had about half a million dollars in exports that first year and now we've boosted that to $14 million." The company's popular PowerLab system is used in worldwide research institutes and universities including Harvard Medical School and Stanford University in the US. The product is also used at Oxford and Cambridge universities in the UK, Tokyo and Nagoya universities in Japan and Heidelberg University in Germany. Local users of the PowerLab system include research faculties at the universities of Melbourne and Sydney. The PowerLab system has revolutionised practices for researchers and educators by allowing data recording directly to computer and replacing complex paper chart recorders. Currently, 95 per cent of ADInstruments' annual turnover results from their export market. Another biotech high achiever is Baulkham Hills-based Fort Dodge Australia. The company manufactures and distribute vaccines and other animal therapeutics and is part of one of the world's leading animal health conglomerates. Fort Dodge is at Norwest Business Park and has a manufacturing plant and laboratory in Penrith, the company's international centre for excellence for clostidial vaccines. Fort Dodge's unique 6-in-1 vaccine for ewes and lambs combines the drenching and vaccination of sheep in one dose, saving time and effort for farmers and reducing stress in animals.
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http://www.stockhouse.com.au/bullboards/viewmessage.asp?no=4999768%20&tableid=1
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http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5478,4075330%5E664,00.html
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Small is good in biotechsBy MATHEW CHARLES05apr02
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AUSTRALIAN biotechs are growing in value faster than their US counterparts. And it's the small stocks that have driven value for investors in the six months from September 30 to the end of March. Big-name glamour stocks CSL and Cochlear have dipped 8 per cent while Resmed has lost 28 per cent of its market value in the period tracked by the Deloitte Biotech index, which tracks 62 listed companies. Index author David Black said their falls could be attributed to very high price-earnings multiples combined with "some healthy realism amongst some sectors of the investment community". But subtract those three heavyweights -- they comprise 76 per cent of the index's value -- and the sector stacked on 38 per cent. That compares with the US Nasdaq Biotech index, which grew 6.4 per cent, and the All Ordinaries index which grew 14.1 per cent. The top stock was drug development company Prima Biomed, whose share price rocketed almost 350 per cent. The report noted that one of the biggest influences in the next six months will be the outcome of the debate on stem cell research, both here and in the United States.