biota beyond the idiotic management

Despite the totally incompetent and parasitic CEO, there are a lot things going for BTA that is not reflected in the depressed share price.

Most share holders are mum and dad shareholders. The sp is artificially depressed by larger shareholders manipulating the price while accumulating. It does not help when the idiot Peter Cook kept talking down the sp. For some strange coincidence, last May the idiot Peter Cook suspended the share buyback and did not inform the market. And by some strange coincidence a depressed sp on 30 June will maximise the number of options granted to the idiot Peter Cook and his mates.

GSK is increasing production capacity from 30 million courses to 60 million courses p.a. 60 million courses is equivalent to $100million royalties and this value is not reflected in the closing sp of $1.185 today @ 175 million shares = $207 million market capitalisation. The demand and orders for Relenza far outstripped GSK production capacity.

Relenza market share is fast catching up with Tamiflu. Due to the growing awaresness of the H1N1 viral resistance to Tamiflu and the hallucination of young patients using Tamiflu, Relenza forms 1/3 of the recent Australian stockpiles and for the first time, Relenza outsold Tamiflu in Japan. Relenza have close to zero sales to the seasonal flu market and for the first time, the Japanese sales signal Relenza is capturing its rightful share of the seasonal flu market. What BTA shareholders should be angry about is that despite Relenza market share increasing to between 1/3 x to 50% market shares (an increase of between 3 to 6 times) GSK is only planning to double production capacity! IMHO GSK capped Relenza production capacity so as to increase the GSK pandemic vaccine sales.

The market is clearly not recognising the $100m royalties (from 60million courses p.a). In addition, WHEN (not if) the current Swine flu H1N1 mutates, the yet to be produced GSK pandemic vaccines may be useless against the mutated strain and antivirals will be the only effective medicine until another new vaccine is developed. Many posters here believe GSK will be forced by markets to increase the planned 60 million courses p.a many more times. The other “blue sky” is LANI is very close to approval in Japan. Daichi Sankyo is very keen to bring LANI into the market and LANI has all the potentials to supersede Relenza and Tamiflu. The LANI blue sky potential is not recognised in the artificially depressed sp.

Despite my strong and well founded opinions on the idiotic Peter Cook management, I believe the Relenza royalties and the LANI potentials are not reflected by the sp.