BTA 0.00% 57.0¢ biota holdings limited

Agree completely with MW3. These acquisitions seem completely...

  1. 26 Posts.
    Agree completely with MW3. These acquisitions seem completely bizarre.
    1.MAybe 10 years before commercially viable product.
    2.Likelihood of getting a commercially viable product possibly remote.
    3. Possibility of purchases in Australia at Stage 2 or 3 of clinical trials and therefore much closer to comercialisation As well as possiblitity of cost savings particularly at managment level. An obvious example was ACR - Sept. announced successful completion of stage 3 trial of Axiron (testosterone replacement therapy with global market over $1 billion, already has another recently commercialised product for reducing quality of life problems in menopause-with recently signed distribution royalty rights internationally. - I bought at time of announcement of stage 3 trial success and price since up about 40%. MArket cap. around $300m - However if BIOTA managment had their ear to the ground would have known what was happening (people working in academia have almost no sense of what is commercially sensitive information)-reinforcing MW3 point re possible Australian opportunities.
    4. Small investment - few million dollars - with operations in UK and US - too remote for any significant managment involvement (perhaps a blessing in disguise)
    5. No obvious complementarity between core expertise of BIOTA re. viral illnesses (e.g. influenza, hepatitis C)and anti bacterials, so difficult to see any organisational savings.
    6. The only thing I like about these purchases is that their size is insiginificant so cant do any major damage.

    BIOTA is my largest investment. But this is based entirely on likely Relenza royalities, and Lani potential. ON this basis alone I think it is significantly undervalued and also think it is prime takeover target and so have no hesitation in continuing to hold. However if management are going to adopt a long term strategy, I would prefer to see a major investment that delivers certain revenue within a reasonable timeframe, as well as operational/mangment synergies.
 
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