biota goes shopping, page-18

BTA is also my largest investment, although the way BTA is stalled to going backwards, and a couple of my other investments are moving up, I expect BTA to be overtaken in a month or so. My holding is based on expected royalties from Relenza.

My expectations of royalies from LANI next year now look optimistic. I was surprised that approval of LANI for therapeutic use was expected to be March 2011 and for prophylactic use was 2012. I would have thought, given the current situation, they would expedite approval.

Flunet needs to be 4000x better than relenza. The drug companies have seen that flu market is in the $ billions. As well as making BTA a takeover target, the current spotlight on antivirals will result in big $ being thrown at antiviral research. In 6-10 years the market may be crowded.

BTA should be throwing the extra $ at pushing LANI onto markets and getting Flunet into advanced trials.

The biggest advantage tamiflu has over relenza is that it is a tablet. It means that it is easy to produce and easy to take. Despite resistance issues and side effects, most people want a tablet. BTA needs to look at antivirals that are tablets.


Mal