Portable Alpha,If you do a quick calculation based on the...

Portable Alpha,
If you do a quick calculation based on the current equity per share and the current return on equity you come up with an intrinsic value of around $1.60 in todays dollars. Something significant will have to happen into the future to boost return on equity to make the fundamentals more attractive and allow the share price to improve. This could be LANI, it could be a greater market share as Relenza takes market share from Tamiflu or it could be a pandemic (this will only influence the short term profit) or it could be another product development. Until one of these starts to take effect them people who buy on fundamentals will stay away from Biota at current prices because its over valued and there is better intrinsic value elsewhere. Its only when you start to factor in high and sustained growth rates that you can start to justify todays or a higher share price. Boost the Return on shareholders funds from 19% to 29% and suddenly the stock has an intrinsic value of $3.42. Day traders, flu reports and hope have kept the price of this share up over the past 6 months or so. I sold out my shares when they were way overvalued. I have enough confidence that the developments in the pipeline will come to fruition that I am waiting to buy back in at a lower price somewhere between todays price and $1.60.