From what I hear, one of the big issues slowing down the deal is the cost of clinical trials which the licensee would/may typically pay for. This could go into the hundreds of millions of dollars and therefore you could imagine the trade-offs being discussed in terms of upfront and royalty%.
Despite all of this, if the Biota negotiators are really good, they should be able to come up with a creative arrangement that works for both parties.
I would be happy for a lower upfront if I knew that a minimum annual units milestone was being met (with penalties if not met). The key would be that these milestones should also be up for regular reviews.
This is where I believe a Malcolm Turnbull style CEO with great business acumen/dealmaking skills would be an invaluable asset and would look at the organisation from a different perspective i.e. profits. If not this, as a shareholder, I would be happy for the organisation to spend $ on a high powered consultant to get a deal over the line on an agreed retainer plus a bonus dependant upon the deal.
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