they have definitely got their analysis wrong, based on the...

they have definitely got their analysis wrong, based on the summary you provided.
Wilson HTM have made assumptions. Just because their assumptions are not the same as Jessie's overtly bullish assumptions does not make them wrong.

You learn nothing by assuming someone with a different opinion to you is wrong. If you invert your thinking and assume you are wrong then you can really make giant leaps.

What were the main points?
75% probability

- Biota has never taken a drug through an entire program of trials through to commercialisation and it is a significant deviation from their business strategy. So there is business specific risk.

- Then there are trail specific risks. From poor trial design, to manufacturing problems through to unexpected adverse effects and more.

- Then black swan risks.

- Assigning a probability over 80% for a program of drug trials that will take 5 years is fraught with danger.

Commercialisation - HTM see royalty model, others see different. There is not right or wrong in either opinion, either could happen. Wilson HTM may of favoured royalty model as that is what Biota's business is.

Biota is a speculative investment.