biota will enjoy all the spoils-the australian, page-13

75% probablility success is not a problem. It is the assumption that it is only worth a 15% royalty shared between DS and Biota that is a problem. That level of royalty would assume that the drug company LANI gets licensed to takes LANI through Phase III trials at their own risk. But Phase 2 and 3 trials are fully funded and Biota will take it through fully to an NDA so any license agreement would have to reflect a much higher royalty reflective of the product being totally de-risked, as well as cost savings from not having to do any trials at all. That is why the Wilson analysis is incompetent.