HOG 0.00% 0.3¢ hawkley oil and gas limited

When the market is very nervous they pick on everything in terms...

  1. 219 Posts.
    When the market is very nervous they pick on everything in terms of the potentially weaker parts of any Coy.

    In terms of HOG extract Oil\Gas and bring the cashflow to Aussie. Now their is some sovereign risk. However Management deals with the people in the know on a day to day basis. They got Well 1 up and running in record time. For a current cashflow of near 3 mil every month.

    Discloser wise they stated they giving monthly update on flow rate and revenue.... they disclosed they only make 52% NET profit. Probably 'pay offs, taxes, etc'... Yet current rented Gas Plant they hire for 17% NET. They building Gas plant based on permit 'pay off'... they done it once and will do it again. You can only say so much on expenses as 'Pay offs' scare investors away... yet it is life in most countries in the world.

    Thus why we have a PE=3 of current income with proven reserves coming from Well 2. Plus 17% NET extra after gas Plant built. Now we all have risk... however I love management who have done it all before in this country and will do it again.

    They confirm 1.5 Mil to Aussie each month in pure profit now... next year they expect 5+ Mil pm. They have the cashflow now, they proven in country they based and all looks well.

    Plus an Aussie Financial firm just purchased 13 Mil worth for 37c per share. After being sold on the Coy's future... they know the risks. Insto is 7c down or over 22% in less than 2 months.

    Fact is at current levels with them doing nothing more... just giving us 20 Mil cash profit pa we worth near 60c.

    Insto punt at 37c is a good one- all has sovereign risk. HOG manages the risk very very well... literally as good as money in our bank.

    Saying all that... if key Management changes and not 'in the know' with Ukraine officials, as I know they are- I would bail. Until then it a great buy till 60c trigger hit. Then review... Well 2 then rerate on Well 2 success.

    Downside is no longer Well 1, as it is a good earner. thus no sellers, this SP is being wound up like a coil spring and will take off very soon IMO.

    Only Sovereign risk based on whom is Managing and management team know the country, people involved and industry inside out. Look to Well 1 for real success and very fast development- in the know.

    Only interested in current earnings and strategic steps for any further upside.

    Well 1- 18-20Mil profit (16-20) Mil expenses. Worth 50c on low PE.

    Well 1 upgrade- Extra 15-25 Mil in extra profit and flow rate. Worth 5-10c (Discount 80%) ***Issues with red tape yet success Well 1 proves they can get projects done FAST***

    Well 2 proven reserves development only- 90% probable success. Worth 5-10c (Discount 80%) *** Still 4-5 months away.

    Their is a reason why Insto paid 37c for 13 Mil dollars of shares only 2 months ago. As it worth a lot more even with large sovereign risk discount. IMO.

    Cheers....
 
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