A lot of muddled thinking going on here in my view. Let me try to lay it our more clearly, although I don't usually comment on the trading.
The way a stock trades is obviously a reflection of traders/invetsors (T/I) sentiment on the assett. This overall sentiment must be considered as an average of the the T/I mind set, and not based on any individual trader, accept of course, when an individual with considerable worth moves shares either way. In such a case, the medium group think will be moved in the direction of that specific shaker. But overall, the price moves in proprtion to the overall sentiment. But overall sentiment is made up of many parts, and on any day one part can be dominant.
Overall sentiment is the sum of all the different group-think of holders, and there are several major groups of distinct groups. Day traders for example are one such group. Others are long term investors. Another is shorter time frame T/I's. Also, at this specific time in ASX history the market is full of arm chair T/I who do not fit neatly into any of the said groups. They buy and sell while the adds are on TV (and are just as much influenced by the said adds).
On a day to day basis any such group can have more influence on the price. If good news was dropped, or bad, obviously all groups sentiment would be influenced positvely/negatively and the price would rise/fall. In general the overall sentiment in recent months is positive and the price has responded 300%+ accordingly. But the drivers of this 3 fold price rise has found its natural end. That sentiment was built on a certain and limited consideration, not an unlimted gift of forevever sucess (that is yet to come). As such, price goes sidways for as long as that plateaued sentiment remains. An excessive period of further waiting will reduce the sentiment/price accordingly. Naturally, a major news event, either way, reignites sentiment accordingly.
Today's price movement is typical of a positive stock sitting flat, where one group, the day traders, with a sprinkling of some undecided arm chairs dominate the day. A new week began after a weekend of positive discussions in the midst of an overall postive sentiment, and the price rises a little as hopeful of armchairs and traders lay their bets, but they will sell for pips, and some, after purchasing last week say at about .097 are very happy to offload at 10.5/11 cents. Some armchairs inbetweens simly just panick. This cycle has been repeating since the initial new positive sentiment plateaued at this 300% rise, and will continue to do so until a new major event, or overall sentiment gradually reduces with excessive more waiting.
Now onto more important things and stop the navel gazing.
I think Glitterati is on the money above when he says that the Covid results known months ago are being held up for commercial reasons. This does in fact make a lot of sense. It makes the only sense if Biotron are following the ASX guidelines, otherside they should have released them. In trying to rationally determine if this is true, the equation looks like this. The reults were either positive and being held up for commercial reasons, or they were not so great and being disingenuously held up and we are being shafted. I think that the former is more likely because I believe that their is far more credence in the C19 results being good rather than poor.
This means that the hold up of C19 results is linked to the HIV results, that is, the same third party is interested in both, and since HIV is not ready, C19 can't be released either. This theory I think suits Occam's Razor best, that is, it is the simplest explaination all things considered. If you smell a mangoe in the garden in summer, look up (or down if bats have been present), rather than consider that the flies are wearing mango scented perfume.
To suggest that C19 results are being hidden for now as they were poor, I believe is the least likely scenario knowing what we do know for reasons I've tried to explain this weekend, and although there is no guarantee that such results were good, if they were not, and the hidden theisis is attempted, then one has to provide a reasonable explaination that would make clearer why Biotron woud illegally hold up results for a few cents, and risk much more. Campanies at this stage of the harvest wouldn't do that.
To the extent of any commercialization occuring I cannot say. It may not be even any explicit deal, as many here have already indicated, but still enough that the C19 results are intrinsically tied to the HIV results in some way, which could be based on groounds other than a commercial 'deal.'
It masy be the cas ethat they decided to release C19 results with HIV simply for the greater impact, but then HIV has release is delayed for the obvious reason of complexity, but Biotron are still going to stick to plan A and release both results together regardless. This iss only the ASX afterall
Anyway, this bat is prepaired to give then the benefit of the doubt for a while longer.
How long?
This week
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(20min delay)
