Of course you are correct re. the drops, and the crypto winter pattern/cycle that has been playing out every 4 years.
Something to consider; cycles can change. Bitcoin as an asset has been maturing, rapidly, and I have come to the conclusion that there won't be a winter this time around - perhaps ever again.
BTC has reached quite a few milestones recently, with macro economics as a major driver; - S&P500 companies putting it on balance sheet - Countrie(s) declaring it a currency - Public awareness at all time highs - Instos/funds moving in - VISA/Mastercard/Paypal (last I checked) accepting it, Amazon rumored to sometime, Twitter tips in btc... ie major retailers and media moving in - Never been more companies accepting it as payment than now - The tech innovation throughout the entire space has never been as prolific or enabling of many new industries - The use cases for different coins has creeped into real world utility - ETFs (well, somewhat almost lol)
On the macro side; - Central banks are out of control, many seem to see BTC as a hedge against inflation/faith being lost in fiat - All markets are in currently in their biggest bubbles of all time... I don't expect btc to crash until other markets eventually do - It is, after all, the highest return asset of all time - since the dawn of time - and besides the day to day cartel running it there's good reason to assume the trend will continue.
Many are expecting another winter soon - the perfect trap - the market loves to surprise against what the majority thinks. Remember if something is too predictable, the market has a way of taking advantage. To assume cycles will continue as they have may be an error... the maturity it's reached now one would expect volatility to smooth out and these 80% dumps to end.
