Bitcoin Update:
My touchstone for the recent extra-ordinary bull rally in Bitcoin has been the 50-Day MA. While Bitcoin held above that line, the rally remained intact. Bitcoin broke below the 50-Day MA on Monday, 19 April. It is now over-extended based on the RSI(8). Last night's action saw a "hang-man" candle. If Monday is positive, we'll probably see a test of the 50-Day MA as resistance. If you're a Bitcoin trader this might provide an opportunity to get out of Bitcoin if resistance holds.
The bottom panel compares the performance of Bitcoin to the performance of the SP500. Bitcoin's bull rally started back in October. Its outperformance over the SP500 peaked in January this year. Mansfield Relative Strength suggested you would be better off in the SP500 after late February. Any residual out-performance evaporated when Mansfield RS dropped below zero on 18 April.
For American investors, if they stayed in an SP500 ETF throughout the bull rally in Bitcoin, they are now ahead of their friends who invested in Bitcoin and are now sticking with it.
