Supply and Spending Behaviour
From a macro perspective, there are remarkable similarities to the 2017 macro peak in regards to the balance of supply held by Long (blue) and Short (red) Term Holders. The chart below shows the relative supply held by each cohort and whether they are in profit (dark colours) or loss (light colours).
After reaching 'Peak HODL' (maximum LTH supply), both cycles demonstrated a macro distribution event, as BTC wealth is transferred from Long term to Short term holders. After the top was put in, we have started to see the opposite effect, where Long-term holders stop spending and begin re-accumulating, despite their coins often falling into an unrealised loss.
Since the $64k top, Long-term holders own an additional 5.25% of the circulating supply of which 1.5% of this is currently underwater (held at an unrealised loss). Despite prices approaching the cost basis for many long-term holders, they continue to HODL on.
