BKL 0.00% $94.73 blackmores limited

BKL future growth

  1. 1,253 Posts.
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    Interested in any opinions on the likely growth trajectory of Blackmores going forward. Forgot infant formula for now, the base vitamin/supplements business has had year-on-year quartely growth at least >60% for the past two years, and well over 100% growth for the past 5 quarters.  The current SP implies that growth is about to stall or fall off a cliff.  

    I'm expecting some pull back this 4Q16 due to the recent Chinese ecommerce regulatory issues, but this appears to be sorted for now.  Changes have been delayed for a year and CH has indicated that BKL's main products were on the "positive list". “My team looked at that list on Friday morning and we have spoken to advisers ... on our first reading of that list it shows that many of our big products are on it, so they are permissible,” Ms Holgate said. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...s/news-story/eefdbb6e6875b484bdc8c8ca1b3a6956.  In this recent article, a CLSA analyst raised concerns that Blackmores might not get products registered for ecommerce sales in time for next May.  This seems overly negative to me (maybe CLSA are short on BKL?), but some communication from the company on progress would be nice.  Is anyone aware whether the daigou channel is affected by these regulations? http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...has-adverse-implications-for-blackmores-clsa/

    On 26/5 AFR reported a dramatic drop in sales due to the ecommerce regulations mess.
    "Our managers in the [vitamin] category report a significant drop in sales that coincides with regulatory changes in April," said a representative of the retailer who asked not to be named......The drop off in sales across its Australian stores is consistent with activity in China, where deliveries to bonded warehouses have fallen as much as 50 per cent since April 8."
    Read more: http://www.copyright link/news/worl...ackmores-swisse-20160525-gp409e#ixzz4D3ASjF2m

    50% drop in warehouse deliveries.  Yet A2M have recently announced another profit upgrade despite this.  How bad a hit can sales for BKL have taken if A2M can still achieve a profit upgrade?  NPAT for BKL should get close to $100M for FY16, making current SP a steal unless you believe the growth is over.  Is the IF market fundamentally different from the vitamins market in China?  The fact that BKL has been achieving 100% YoY growth implies to me that we are still in the early stages of penetrating this market.  Even if this growth dropped to 50% YoY the shares are still drastically underpriced.  The main barrier seems to be clarifying that BKL will actually be able to sell its products to China.  Really??  Opinions on where BKL should be valued based upon a more realistic view are most welcome.
 
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