bkp short term sp forecast

To invest or not to invest…that indeed is the question.

CONS:

• Lack of transparency to shareholders (Loans to other entities)
• General lack of timely updates to shareholders
• Uncertainty of availability of BKP financial resources for 2014-2016 exploration.

PRO's

• Rider Scott evaluation
• Statoil’s involvement –Top performer, financial backing, would have performed Risk analysis on Baraka financial position (permit holder) before farm in.
• Statoil will conduct 2-D Seismic and select up to SIX wells to be drilled in 2014
• Lessons learned analysis from 2011 -2012 to be used to overcome technical issues that affected previous drilling programs
• Neighboring exploration company Central Petroleum is due to complete its seismic survey in the last quarter of 2013 as per their Southern Georgina Joint Venture with the world's 13th largest oil and gas company, French energy giant Total.
• Completion of seismic starts the momentum going for increased exploration and drilling in the Southern Georgina Basin tenements. This coupled with a highly capable operator in Statoil all but ensures that prospective targets would be found and that any commercial discoveries would be quickly developed


Near future SP movers:

• Anticipation of the interpretation of the seismic data is expected to be finalized during the 4th Quarter of 2013.
• ANN: Approximately first week November 2013 – Outcome of 2D Seismic analysis by Statoil
• ANN: Confirmation of the 6 Well’s to be drilled and timelines.
• Neighboring Central Petroleum ANN of seismic survey in first quarter of 2014 is likely to have a further positive influence on BKP shareprice.
• As can be seen from the increased activity on all BKP forums (view count) there are a multitude of investors biding their time for the right moment to invest. This was confimed by the increased volume (false start) observed in the SP on the 13th September.

Estimation:
Nov 1-7th approximate next ANN from Statoil will see SP increase to approx 0.012 – 0014 (200 -300%)


However, Looking at SP around the same time 2 years ago: SP move from 0.005 to 0.021 within 2 weeks and held.
This was purely speculation , release of the Ryder Scott Report and signing of drilling contract.

I strongly believe that history will repeat itself.

06/12/2010 Potential Oil Resource Estimates
07/12/2010 Drilling Contract Signed
13/12/2010 Ryder Scott Report on Potential Oil Resource Estimate