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really like the summary mjp2, and I align a lot to your...

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koprth

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23/02/21

22:59

Post #: 51264755
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Originally posted by mjp2: ↑

We agree. But I'll add my thoughts. My expectation is that we might see the first commercial solid state batteries around 2025, and that it will be another 5 years before they are up to maybe half the rapidly growing EV market. I am not seeing any ready to go solid state technology, despite the hype, and plenty of well marketed early stage, competing approaches in development that have made significant technology gains but are not ready yet.

That range of approaches in development will have vehicle manufacturers holding off on solid state till they are sure they are not investing in a commercially dangerous inferior approach. Meantime we'll have a big scale up of further technically developed and cost optimised Li based non-solid state batteries using graphite anodes that will compete on capital cost with ICE vehicles and steal the rapidly expanding market. All of which is the basis of the industry forecasts for graphite demand. I think Mahenge will be fine.

VW is saying a decade with QuantumScape before their punt on solid state goes commercial. And we are hearing similar from other vehicle manufacturers in partnerships with other battery developers, with a few outliers.

It is hard to not expect for the next ten years that Black Rock won't be ramping up and in demand during a period of graphite shortage. After 2030, as you say, they have other markets than vehicles, but I'd still expect upgraded Li based chemistry with graphite anodes to be a significant part of the two and four wheel vehicle markets.

Even in the event that this thesis is wrong and Black Rock find the market demand restricts production to, say, the first two modules, I think there has to be a multiple of the current share price ahead of us. The capital investment risk is highly manageable with their control over progressive construction of additional modules to match the market, so I see good upside even in the worst case.

And I don't see that worst case as likely. Customers have asked them to do an upgraded DFS with higher initial volumes, iirc, and an additional module. That case playing out is many multiples of the current price. You pay your money and make your bet on the future.

Solid state is most likely a big part of the future. I just don't see it upsetting the upside for Black Rock. We'll see.

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really like the summary mjp2, and I align a lot to your thinking.

I also like the below link and video summary on the other alternative anode technology, silicone. TLDR, it covers how even if Tesla are successful in changing the anode to be predominantly silicone based, the technology is still a long way off from being implemented into mainstream battery manufacturing, in addition, would only remove about 50% of the graphite content in the battery. And therefore, if the rate of innovation is out-paced by rate of EV demand, graphite will still be in high demand for many years to come (IMO).

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-silicon-fast-charge-is-on-the-way

DYOR!

BKT Price at posting: 16.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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