@Jaxjax not a bad first mining stock to be investing in! Well done..
In regards to your question around % of NPV at certain stages, this really is a subjective amount. Analysts will have their opinion and there are plenty of thoughts online about it.
You are correct in stating that there are many varying assumptions that will effect this, some of which certain investors will place a greater weighting towards.
General rule of thumb that is used in the market:
- Fully permitted + fully funded one could assume at least 30% of NPV ($1.65bil) is reasonable = ~$500mil market cap.
Based on the current shares on issue (868,533,663) and assuming say $50mil of new equity to be raised (let's assume an additional 200mil shares at 25c are issued for the $50mil of equity funding to keep it simple), this could see a ~$0.47 share price at this stage (not including any options to be exercised)
- The above + 12 months out from production (construction underway), one could assume 50% of NPV is reasonable = ~$825mil market cap
With 1,068,533,633 shares now on issue this could see a $0.77 share price at this stage.
Worth remembering that the time between the first and second scenario will effectively be 3 - 6months at most!!
- First production (on time and budget) could be anywhere from 80%+ of NPV. Don't under estimate the market pricing BKT north of 1x project NPV if the company pull a couple of rabbits out in terms of project economics, bring forward modules 2,3,4 or the market start to appreciate the downstream value add initiatives with Urbix.
80% of the project NPV of $1.65bil = $1.32bil
With no further equity required this could see a share price of $1.24
Finally at 1 x NPV of $1.65bil, the undiluted share price of $1.54
If someone cares to add up the outstanding options and adjust the shares on issue, please do. This will obviously lower the share prices listed above.
BKT, page-855
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